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Friday, 13 September 2019

Iron ore blasts back to $100

Ton up

A century for the US dollar iron ore price!

Well, near enough, and certainly more than can be said for the English batsmen today:


The spot price of iron ore is now up 22 per cent in only a fortnight.

That's just shy 45 bucks above the budget assumption for Q1 2020, so the government has seen its prized surplus fast-tracked and then some, while Australia's current account is also in surplus for the first time since 1975 (partly thanks to weak imports). 

In most sensible scenarios there would be a loosening of the purse strings to get the stalled economy moving, especially given the ongoing crunch in residential construction. 

Aha. 

Instead, further monetary easing is priced in, and the Reserve Bank is being left to muse half a dozen possible unconventional monetary policy measures (albeit they're deemed 'unlikely' to be employed at this stage):


ECB goes again

In a related vein, there's been a fresh and synchronised bout of easing around the world of late.

Today the European Central Bank cut the deposit rate to a record low -0.5 per cent and - despite dissent - announced it would embark upon a fresh round of bond purchases at 20 billion Euros per month for long as necessary, as Germany flirts with a possible recession. 

Draghi made some pointed comments to observe that if appropriate fiscal policy had been put in place, the side effects of monetary policy would be much less. 

Presumably the acute comments were mainly aimed at Germany and France, but it's a central banking refrain that's been echoed Down Under too.