Leading indicator slumps
The Department of Employment's leading indicator of employment fell for a 16th (sixteenth) consecutive month in September.
Cyclical employment has now fallen for a second month too, as the cycle rolls over:
Source: Department of Employment
Employment figures have continued to confound on the upside, but it's hard to see how that continues given the outlook for economic activity.
Anyway, here's what the market expects from today's Labour Force figures, which is to say employment growth of +15,000 and the unemployment rate flat at 5.2 per cent (a long way from NAIRU, which is thought to be around 4½ per cent or perhaps lower):
Expect we'll see more sluggish growth in hours worked, whatever the headline result.
Charts later!
