Housing credit impulse not yet turning a corner

Credit growth eases

Credit growth eased to 0.5 per cent in May, on slightly slower business credit expansion, though it picked up to a solid 6.9 per cent over the year. 

Housing credit growth was 0.49 per cent over the month - and has essentially held steady at around that level for over a year now - to increase by 5.8 per cent over the year.

The most notable trend here is that property investors are coming back into the housing market, with credit growth rising to a 31-month high over the year to May.

That said, transaction volumes are still fairly muted at this stage, and the housing credit impulse has not turned a corner just yet.

Probably there will be an acceleration later in the year as more attractive mortgage rates become available.

Inflation gauge eases

In other news, the Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge recorded price inflation of just 0.1 per cent in May (having declined -0.4 per cent in the previous month), taking the annual reading down to 2.4 per cent.

Trimmed mean inflation was also just 0.1 per cent over the month, pointing to further lower inflation readings ahead. 

Source: Melbourne Institute data, Shane Oliver, AMP

An interest rate cut is fully priced in for the July 8 meeting announcement, and it's likely that we'll see more easing later in the year, according to market pricing.

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My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

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2-Sense podcast: This was the best performing investment over 20 years

2-Sense podcast

This week on the podcast we discussed Domain's property price forecasts for 2026, the best investments over 20 and 50 years as reported by the AFR, affordable suburb picks, and the best home loan rates on the market. 

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

Blackstone to push for Australia growth

Institutional push

The world's largest asset manager Blackstone put out a couple of sob story news pieces this week, effectively begging for more tax breaks for corporations, since it's too expensive for institutional investors to build housing in Australia. 

Their indirect lobbying may or may not be successful, but keeping the initial construction costs down is only the first challenge in making institutional housing projects work at scale.

By way of an example, The Collective at Canary Wharf in London was billed as the world's largest luxury co-living development with 705 micro-apartments over 21 storeys.

The development was set to be super-luxurious, with gym, jacuzzi, pool, steam room, shared working spaces, live events, and more, advertised as "faff-free renting."

Due to design and management challenges, the reality for some of the longer-term tenants was more akin to living in a youth hostel, with damage, security issues and theft, mould, peeling paint, partying and noise complaints, and so on.

The result was an endless slew of 1-star reviews from disheartened tenants, some of whom reported that the stay was the worst they'd ever experienced.

Institutional projects where - there are no owners with a vested interest in the upkeep of the block - must deliver on product, design, and management, for everything to work as promised, while remaining profitable. 

This can be done for smaller and medium-sized projects, but often appears harder to achieve at scale. 

In this instance, the original developers sank into administration.

It's worth remember that institutional housing projects are purely delivered to generate high returns for investors, so inevitably the rents are not cheap, and the pitch for investors assumes that rents will go up by at least 3 per cent per annum ad infinitum, while repairs and maintenance costs remain modest.

A 2-bedroom apartment in a Melbourne Build-to-Rent project will most likely cost the tenant around $45,000 per annum, and in Sydney the figure would likely be over $50,000. 

With the Labor government achieving a significant majority in the recent election, there will certainly be a big push for more institutionally-owned housing over the remainder of the decade, so it will be interesting to see how such challenges are navigated. 

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You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

Job vacancies rebound, driven by Victoria

Job vacancies tick up

While most states and territories are seeing job vacancies gradually revert lower from their pandemic highs, Victoria saw a bit of a jump back up from 76,000 to 82,000 over the three months to May 2025. 

It appears that the increase was driven by the construction sector to support an expansion in infrastructure projects, with job vacancies rebounding from a recent nadir, as well as a rise in professional, science, and technology roles. 

Victoria's rebound helped to drive a small increase in national job vacancies to 339,400, though total vacancies are still hovering around 3½ year lows. 

Even today there are still only 1.9 unemployed persons per job vacancy, far below the pre-pandemic level of around 3. 

That said, the rapidly expanding size of the labour force since the international borders reopened mean that the chronic tightness in the labour market has been gradually easing since late 2022, and the unemployment rate will most likely revert gradually higher from today's levels towards 4½ per cent or higher.

Overall, these were further robust figures for the jobs market, seemingly consistent with a soft landing or smooth transition.

Household wealth hits record

In other news, household wealth in Australia increased by 0.8 per cent in the March 2025 quarter to a new high of $17.3 trillion.

Approximately half of that wealth is tied up in the housing market.

With a population of 27½ million as at March 2025, this equates to a new record mean wealth per capita of around $630,000. 

Or, with around 11.34 million households, this averages out to a mean household wealth of more than $1.5 million per household.

This is one of the reasons the housing market will likely perform well over the next couple of years, given the sheer depth of aggregate household wealth in Australia, driven by savings, equities, superannuation, and housing, all of which have hit new highs in 2025. 

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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

RealWay Webinar: Our suburb picks for 2025

RealWay webinar

Below you can watch back a recording of last night's webinar I featured in with Eric Wu of RealWay Finance. 

If you want to jump to the part where we discussed our suburb picks for 2025 (yes, I know you do) that bit begins at around the 43 minute mark.

Tune in here (or watch below):

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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

Inflation falls more than expected, near 4-year low

Inflation drops

Inflation fell more than expected in May 2025, with the headline measure down to just 2.1 per cent over the year.

Inflation is now at the bottom end of the target range in Australia and tracking at around a 4-year low, with more line items now seeing inflation running at under 2 per cent than over 3 per cent.

The trimmed mean measure of inflation also fell from 2.8 per cent to 2.4 per cent over the year to May, in so doing dropping into the lower half of the target range.

Source: ABS

Government electricity rebates have kept inflation in this component close to zero, whereas expensive renewables mean that electricity prices would've otherwise been around 18 per cent higher over the year to May.

Inflation in rents, construction costs, and now insurance (finally!) appears to be moderating. 

It looks as though services inflation will be soft in the June quarter, based on these figures, with a significant drop in services inflation over the year (down from 4.1 per cent to 3.3 per cent). 

The wrap

Overall, with an inflation rate of 2.1 per cent over the year, Australia is now tracking comparatively well versus many peer countries. 

With growth in the economy having stalled, there's a stronger case for bringing the cash rate target down to a neutral or somewhat stimulatory setting quickly.

Markets are looking for close to four interest rate cuts over the next year, and both the months of July and August looking like strong candidates for rate cuts.

James Foster ran through the key inflation figures in more detail here.

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In other news, engineering construction work activity fell -1.7 per cent in the March quarter, driven by a sharp -3.8 per cent decline in public sector works.

The trend still looks solid enough for engineering work, with a wide range of large infrastructure projects having sent activity to stratospheric levels.

However, the value of new work commenced plunged by more than 9 per cent, so we're clearly on the way back down from here, in tune with lower commodity prices.

This will be another headwind for the economy to face down in 2026, and the private sector will finally need to step up to the plate.

---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.  

Experiences over things

Spending plans

First time in a while I've written something on my personal blog page.

Check it out here (or click on the image below):

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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm far too active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - check out our free Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

2-Sense: First homebuyer FOMO hitting housing market?

2-Sense podcast

This week on the podcast Batesy and I discussed the jump in first homebuyer lending, the record stamp duty burden, and the number of prospective first homebuyers with a deposit saved.

We also ran through a listener Q&A at the end to cover a few of your questions. 

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here - yes, I know I need a haircut - or watch below):

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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

Population growth eases back towards new normal

Population growth normalises

Population growth was slightly softer than expected at an estimated +91,100 over the December 2024 quarter. 

Over the year, Australia's estimated resident population increased by +445,900 or +1.7 per cent, driven largely by net overseas migration (+340,800), far more so than the natural increase of the population (+105,200). 

Reported the ABS:

"‘There were 594,900 people arriving from overseas and 254,200 departures. 

This means that 340,800 people were added to our population from overseas migration in 2024.'"

Internally, there are still strong population slows heading into south-east Queensland (+25,940) and Western Australia (+12,612) over the calendar year. 

That said, the pandemic-induced rush towards moving interstate has now dropped back towards rather more sustainable levels. 

Population growth overall appears to be a little slower than previously projected, and Australia's population clock will finished the financial year at around 27.6 million (previously it had looked more like 27.7 million was closer to the mark).

The estimated rate of population growth is now running at one extra person around every 1 minute and 16 seconds, according to the ABS, which equates to around 400,000 per annum, or a bit higher. 

Going forward, the latest arrivals and departures figures suggest that population growth may may settle at somewhere around this mark. 

Over the year, the bulk of population growth was accounted for by Victoria (+132,600), New South Wales (+108,100), and Queensland (+102,800), although the fastest percentage rate of growth was seen in Western Australia (+2.4 per cent).

Tasmania saw the slowest rate of population growth at 0.3 per cent, or +1,600 persons. 

Source: ABS

Looking ahead, tougher assessment criteria and thus slower growth in student visas should take some of the heat out of rampant population growth, even though overall immigration settings are still running at historically elevated levels.

---

   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today. 

Unemployment rate holds at 4.1pc

Employment eases

After April's bumper result (+88,000), the total number of employed persons dropped back by -2,500 in May 2025.

Still, full-time employment growth was strong enough - again - and the 3-month average employment gain remains very robust at +37,000. 

The participation rate declined a notch in May, and in turn the unemployment rate held at a still very low level of just 4.06 per cent, seasonally adjusted. 

There were also few signs of slack in the measures of underemployment.

Despite these apparently tight dynamics, wages growth has already been easing quite significantly, perhaps softened by strong population growth figures. 

The wrap

Overall, this was a soft-ish result with employment declining, and markets having expected a +20,000 employment gain, following on from the very weak GDP growth figures reported earlier this month. 

Other measures of labour force health, such as SEEK job advertisements, for example, appear to be slowing quite considerably.

As such, markets are leaning towards a further interest rate cut in July, with a 25 basis points cut about 80 per cent priced in.

James Foster dived into some more of the details around today's report here. 

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   1. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.9 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 15,000 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance, investing, and business, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.