Unemployment rate down again
It's that time of the month again: jobs figures!
There was an initial flicker of excitement as the unemployment rate fell to about a decade low of 4.9 per cent.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to a few decimal places was 4.947 per cent (down from 5.03 per cent in the preceding month)...so that just rounds down to 4.9 per cent.
That's a fresh low for the cycle to date.
That's a fresh low for the cycle to date.
Under the hood, though, it wasn't an especially strong result, with a slight fall in participation reported for February.
The underemployment rate was still quite elevated at 8.1 per cent, and some longer term context also suggests that unemployment can go plenty lower than this.
The improvement in recent times has largely been a Sydney/Melbourne story, but this month the improvement was driven by a big drop in Queensland, and South and West Australia.
Around the traps, the bigger picture is that trend unemployment rates in New South Wales and Victoria are tracking at about 4½ per cent, but elsewhere unemployment rates have generally been running at around 6 per cent.
Around the traps, the bigger picture is that trend unemployment rates in New South Wales and Victoria are tracking at about 4½ per cent, but elsewhere unemployment rates have generally been running at around 6 per cent.
The Queensland figures for February might've been impacted by the Townsville floods and related impacts on data collection, so some caution is warranted too.
There's no way the Reserve Bank is going to shift its stance too much while the unemployment rate is still declining, although the most timely available leading indicators such as reports on job advertisements are now weakening.
Jobs hold up
On closer inspection, the figures weren't quite so hot.
Seasonally adjusted employment followed up a series of four solid monthly gains with a more modest +4,600 increase - a bit of a miss against market expectations - in doing so keeping annual employment growth at a solid enough +2.3 per cent.
The composition of employment growth was also weaker this month, being driven by an increase in part time employment.
In terms of annual employment growth Victoria (+137,000) re-assumed pole position from New South Wales (+129,000), and those two states alone accounted for some 94 per cent of employment growth over the year to February 2019.
Finally, the annual trend growth in hours worked improved a bit.
The wrap
Most leading indicators suggest that the labour market is softening, but this hasn't yet flowed through much to the actual employment figures.
This will allow the Reserve Bank the luxury of sitting pat for a while, though money markets remain convinced that the cash rate will be falling as 2019 progresses.
The US Federal Reserve going on pause might just give Australia some welcome breathing space too.
Nearly all of the recent employment growth has been in the two main states, and this is largely reflected in population growth figures too.
The US Federal Reserve going on pause might just give Australia some welcome breathing space too.
Nearly all of the recent employment growth has been in the two main states, and this is largely reflected in population growth figures too.
