Capex surprise
Here's a turn-up for the books: private new capital expenditure actually increased by a seasonally adjusted 2 per cent to above $30 billion in the December quarter, as businesses invested more fruitfully.
The plant, equipment, and machinery components that feed into GDP weren't quite so strong, and will add only modestly to growth, so the Reserve Bank may still need to tough out a horribly weak print for growth in the economy in Q4.
But this capex release was clearly a net win for them, with services investment picking up nicely, especially in Sydney.
Perhaps more significantly, the outlook for investment also brightened, with the fifth estimate for FY 2019 lifting to $119 billion, the mining bust now officially - finally! - over, and plans for investment across the services industries lifting. Tidy result.
NSW surges
Interestingly actual capital investment increased solidly across each of the main three states plus South Australia.
Queensland has a surprisingly sprightly range of infrastructure and other projects dotted around the place.
Queensland has a surprisingly sprightly range of infrastructure and other projects dotted around the place.
Western Australia is now at last working through the end of the mining downturn, but total investment in the Northern Territory has completely collapsed as Ichthys drops off the annual readings.
Actually this is a really interesting point, so let's break out those state figures.
Look at investment in New South Wales go! Even in smoothed trend terms investment in the state is really on a tear, heading up and away to a record high (Victoria and Queensland are not looking too shabby either, but NSW is really going some):
Taps turned off
'Them in charge' might be on the cusp of pulling off a minor masterstroke if the capital investment and jobs keep coming.
But there's a clear and obvious risk that with the credit taps to households switched off that the consumer economy seizes up.
The annual figures for housing credit don't look too bad, but the few months leading up to the end of the Royal Commission were woeful, with the month of January itself recording the weakest growth in several decades.
In fact, to plough those figures into the favour-of-the-month housing credit impulse model, by the end of January we had the weakest impulse since 2011, although the model does imply dwelling price falls moderating.
But don't forget Chinese investors have also pulled up the ladder, though, on tighter capital controls and other local disincentives.
But don't forget Chinese investors have also pulled up the ladder, though, on tighter capital controls and other local disincentives.
And the past four months of personal credit growth figures were, well, basically in recession territory.
No doubt we'll dodge a technical recession in 2019, as we always seem to, but in per capita terms we're already in one, folks.
Switch them taps back on for gawd's sake!
