Vacancies hold up
Job vacancies increased by about 9 per cent from a year earlier to hit a record high of 244,900 in February 2019.
The growth rate here does now appear to be rolling over, though.
Of course the total labour force is still growing at a fair lick too.
But even accounting for this, if historical trends persist this level of job vacancies could still see further downwards pressure on the unemployment rate from 4.9 per cent...at least for a while.
This survey result pushes the number of unemployed persons per vacancy down to just above 2.7, which is a fresh multi-year low (though only just!).
Sydney retains strength
An interesting point of note is the ongoing strength in New South Wales, which notched a record high 87,800 job vacancies, while construction job vacancies were still holding up at multi-year highs in February.
There may be a clutch of lower-skilled and administrative roles in this figure, but the credit squeeze seems to have impacted other states more so than NSW from a job creation perspective as the state's infrastructure boom rolls on.
The trend ratio of unemployed persons to job vacancies in New South Wales is approaching a record low at just 2:1, so the Reserve Bank will be hopeful that skills shortages are giving rise to wage price gains.
Finally the annual average unemployment rates in both Sydney and Melbourne hit multi-year lows in February, but here too the trend appears to be softening gradually.
The wrap
Pretty good numbers for Sydney and Melbourne here, but it's a race against time for the economy to start firing again before the RBA is forced to cut rates, with growth in the March quarter looking set to be soft for a hat-trick of weakened results.
There has been some noise about loosening of lending standards, but this takes time to flow through to activity, and markets are now pricing two full cuts for the RBA.
And this is in spite of the high level of job vacancies still apparent at the end of February.
Indeed, as I write this I note Australia's 3-year bond yield has just hit the lowest level on record, so that tells you what markets think about it: stand by for rate cuts.
And this is in spite of the high level of job vacancies still apparent at the end of February.
Indeed, as I write this I note Australia's 3-year bond yield has just hit the lowest level on record, so that tells you what markets think about it: stand by for rate cuts.
Away from Sydney and Melbourne the economy does look to be pretty lacklustre.
