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Wednesday, 27 March 2019

Capital cities grow strongly; unit pipeline shrinks

Capitals expand

The ABS released its regional population growth estimates for FY2018, with some endlessly fascinating stats. 

The big picture is that it remains very difficult to tempt Australians to go regional, with capital cities expanding by 307,800 (or 1.9 per cent) over the financial year, but regional Australia in its entirety growing by only 83,200.

You can click the ABS graphics below to expand them: 


Source: ABS

Greater Melbourne (+119,400) grew at a rampant rate of 2½ per cent to approach a headcount of 5 million, while Sydney (+93,400) remained a very attractive place to live as its population passes 5.3 million today. 

Annual population growth in Brisbane picked up for a fourth consecutive year to more than 50,000, or 2.1 per cent. 


Source: ABS

Population growth has been tremendously strong over the past four years in Sydney (+388,000) and Melbourne (+487,300), while population growth in Brisbane has accelerated for four years in a row now thanks to interstate migration trends.

Greater Melbourne has thus increased by about 600,000 persons in only five years.


Source: ABS

There was significant regional population growth at Gold Coast (17,000), Sunshine Coast (8,000), Geelong (7,000), Melton, Newcastle (6,000), Wollongong (4,000), and Central Coast (3,000). 

The northern part of Melbourne CBD has Australia's densest population per square kilometre at more than 27,000, but overall Sydney has many more of the most densely populated areas, now spread across more than 50 square kilometres of the harbour city. 

Unit pipeline crashes

Darwin saw its population in decline.

This may be no surprise when you look at the impact the winding up of the Ichthys LNG construction phase has had on engineering construction in the Northern Territory.

Engineering construction activity in the NT has fallen by about three quarters over the past year alone. 


Today's engineering construction figures for Q4 2018 were old news to some extent, but fit with the broader picture of the credit squeeze having virtually crippled activity in the economy, with engineering construction nationally plunging 7 per cent lower year-on-year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has now introduced a dovish bias, and the RBA is widely expected to follow suit.


Figures released by the UDIA today showed that 110,000 planned capital city apartments were stalled or abandoned in 2018 (up from only 22,000 in the prior year), with some 168,850 residential units in total failing to attract a green tick. 

That points to a dramatic fall in residential construction over the years ahead. 

The jump in abandoned apartment projects were felt most keenly in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane - in that order - with the "sharp declines in projects leading to greater supply problems and shortages" as the pendulum swings back in the opposite direction (The Australian).