Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Sunday, 9 July 2017

Bears beware?

Truthers beware

A quick one for the unemployment 'truthers' out there!

Quite a plethora of pundits have opined over recent years that the official ABS employment figures are "fake", while the "real" numbers are published by Roy Morgan Research, mainly because Roy Morgan uses a different methodology and typically records a higher unemployment rate.

These good folks will no doubt be conspicuous by their absence this month, though!

Roy Morgan reported total employment searing +576,000 higher over the year to a record high of 12,330,000.

Notably full-time employment increased by +308,000 to a record 8,100,000.

That's annual employment growth of +5 per cent.

Holy moly...

If the ABS survey follows suit then expect to see employment growth picking up the pace as 2017 continues, which would also mirror business surveys and job vacancies indicators. 


The 2016 Census will reveal some startling figures on the sheer concentration of recent migrants in the capital cities, and particularly the number of Chinese-born migrants residing in Sydney and Melbourne. 

It's not exactly a shock to readers here - I've discussed this unfolding trend here many times before - but the determined manner in which migrants have shunned regional Australia will raise some eyebrows as the media reports are rolled out.

Partly for this reason, expect to see the unfolding jobs growth concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne.

Indeed, the jobs vacancies figures suggest to me that Sydney's unemployment rate could be headed to under 4 per cent.