Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the better property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"Pete's daily analysis is unputdownable" - Dr. Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial.

Wednesday, 12 July 2017

NAB survey burns house down

Humming

The distant beating of jungle drums is getting just that bit harder to ignore as the Australian economy continues to pick up the pace. 

It's true that the much stronger jobs figures seen in 2017 are a lagging indicator, but job vacancies surveys are pointing to good things ahead.

And now the timely business survey from National Australia Bank (NAB) is turning north towards further gains.

The reading for business confidence rose to +9, in June 2017 well ahead of the long run average of +6.

And business conditions have stormed to +15, which is the highest reading in 9 years and follows the other key measure of conditions already reported. 

The long run average reading for the series is +5. 

Granted things promptly got worse last time we reached these heights, but this survey now sits a world away from the stuttering results of 2014.


Source: NAB

Conditions looked relatively upbeat across all industries except for mining, with even retail turning in a much improved result. 

Capacity utilisation rates point to further declines in unemployment, and even the labour costs index has broken out, suggesting that stronger wages growth may also follow in time. 

Of the mainland states, Queensland has seen a huge leap in business confidence to +13, now overtaking New South Wales +10. 

Consumer confidence is expected to follow this series higher. 

Rates to follow?

Markets have seen enough and are now pricing a rate hike before the end of 2018.

Despite this, it seems likely that the core inflation rate for the second quarter of 2017 will remain under the target 2 to 3 per cent range. 

The inflation report is due for release on July 27.