Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), & CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he's one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written, yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data & charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' & 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, 'MacroBusiness'.

Tuesday, 4 July 2017

Retail bounds back

Economy humming

Retail turnover followed up a strong +1 per cent gain in April, beating out expectations with another solid +0.6 gain in May 2017, to dispel concerns of a retail recession. 

Over the past year national retail turnover has risen at a solid lick, up by +3.8 per cent to a fresh high of $26.08 billion.

Big states lead

Retail turnover has stalled in weather-impacted Queensland over the past quarter.

In the month of May, however, New South Wales (+1.3 per cent), Victoria (+1.2 per cent), Tasmania (+1.2 per cent), ACT (+1 per cent), South Australia (+0.8 per cent), and Western Australia (+0.3 per cent) all recorded solid gains.

The two most populous states have seen renewed increases, with the Census showing that population growth in Sydney and particularly Melbourne has quickened.  

Over the past year the ACT (+5.7 per cent) and Victoria (+5.2 per cent) have been leading the way in terms of retail turnover growth, with South Australia (+4.9 per cent) not all that far behind. 

Industry trends

The monthly increase was driven by household goods (+2.2 per cent) and clothing and footwear (+1.3 per cent), but department stores had another stinker of a month with turnover declining by -0.7 per cent. 

The combination of strong household goods sales and outperformance in New South Wales implies some replacement of flood-damaged items, a point well identified by Scutty at Business Insider

Cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services (+0.6 per cent) recorded yet another solid gain, continuing a multi-decade trend. 

The wrap

It's another tick in the box for a domestic economy that is steadily gathering a bit of momentum.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was stone dead neutral in its monetary policy decision in leaving the cash rate on hold at 1.50 per cent, in doing so wiping away a lot of extremely premature extrapolation about a looming rate hike. 

Markets read this one quite badly wrong, and the Aussie dollar dropped sharply.