May monetary meeting begins

RBA to ease, gradually

Last week's jobs figures surprised to the upside, suggesting that big government spending and a boom in non-market jobs has helped to keep the labour market surprisingly tight throughout this cycle.

That said, wages growth appears to have stabilised at just above 3 per cent, and inflationary pressures continue to gently ebb away.

Fuel prices around the country have been falling away over recent days and weeks to multi-year lows, which will certainly help on that front.

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia begins its two-day monetary policy meeting for the month of May.

Economists are essentially agreed on a 25 basis points cuts this month, to be announced tomorrow afternoon (a couple are calling for 50 basis points, but that won't be on the table). 

Source: Bloomberg, via Sean Callow, X

Looking further ahead, while some of the major economists are more dovish, the median market forecast for 1Q2026 is for a cash rate target of between 2.60 per cent (low forecast) and 3.60 per cent (high forecast). 

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