Jobs
burst higher again
The
jobs figures have been a little bit all over the place over recent months.
In
February there was suddenly a wild -57,000 decline, followed by a revised +36,000
for March, and now in April employment apparently burst +89,000 higher, driven
by a renewed surge in female employment.
It
usually pays to either zoom out or follow the trend when you get such levels of volatility.
Looking
through the monthly ‘numberwang’, the average employment gain over the past 3
months was steady enough at +23,000.
The
jobs figures have mostly simply continued to confound the economic bears, with
employment rising to a new high of 14,642,700, some +390,000 higher than the same time last year.
There was also a jump higher in the participation rate in April, reflected in a modest rise in the number of unemployed persons, while the seasonally unemployment rate was basically unchanged in rising from 4.05 per cent to 4.07 per cent over the month.
There
have been just a few slightly softer aspects to the labour force figures of
late.
Reportedly
job vacancies figures have been well off the highs, pointing to a likely somewhat softer pace of hiring ahead.
Meanwhile
Roy Morgan Research reported that the ‘real’ unemployment rate has increased to
a much softer 11.1 per cent.
Back
with the Australian Bureau of Statistics release today, the underemployment
rate was slightly higher at 6 per cent, and the under-utilisation rate also
rose from 9.9 per cent to 10.1 percent.
That said, both measures of slack remain plenty tighter than they were at the onset of the pandemic in early 2020.
The
wrap
Overall,
this was a remarkably strong set of numbers, all things considered, and there’s even a case for the
Reserve Bank holding fire on interest rates this month to await further data,
despite the inflation pressures having mostly ebbed away.
Still, market are pricing a cut this month as 96 per cent likely – basically a lock – but there are now only three interest rate cuts priced in for the remainder of 2025, as markets have calmed considerably over recent weeks.
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