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Tuesday, 27 May 2025

Libs pledge to axe stamp duty in Victoria

Stamp duty change

Victoria's state government Liberal opposition has pledged to scrap stamp duty for first homebuyers buying properties up to $1 million if they are elected next year. 

The change would apply to both new and established properties.

It's not exactly clear how such a move would be funded, or indeed how the proposed policy aligns with the need to get Victoria's state debt under control.

Combining this with 5 per cent deposits in 2026 (a Federal policy for first homebuyers) and a 'Big Australia' population push seems like a potent combination of demand-side measures. 

The move could save first homebuyers up to $55,000 in stamp duty costs. 

You can check out the Liberals media release here.

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Tomorrow sees the release of the April monthly inflation figures for Australia.

In the first month of the quarter it's largely goods prices - rather than services prices - that are updated, so a fairly benign result seems likely.

China seems to be engaging in a price war for electronic vehicles - while its economy also seems to be stuck in reverse gear - which might take some of the edge of vehicle and other goods prices, while oil prices are significantly lower than a year earlier.

Furthermore, tariffs on China are likely to see Australia flooded with cheaper goods over the year ahead. 

For these reasons and more, Tim Toohey of Yarra Capital sees five more interest rate cuts to a cash rate target of 2.6 per cent over the next year. 

The nominal neutral cash rate has moved lower over the past year, as covered in the Reserve Bank's SOMP lasty week, although there's always a fair degree of uncertainty around this:

Market pricing appears a bit more benign, looking for a cash rate target bottoming out at around 3 per cent over the next 12 to 15 months. 

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