Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 12 May 2017

A surge in long term arrivals

Surge in arrivals

February 2017 was Australia's busiest ever month for permanent and long term arrivals, with 103,570 recorded entries, and annual long term arrivals are now surging too. 


The annual uplift in permanent settlers is largely being driven by Indian migrants, as well as an increase in the humanitarian intake from countries such as Iraq.

This has more than offset a relative dearth of New Zealanders and Britons coming for the long term. 


Lower dollar bites

Over the two months since January there was been a significant fall in the seasonally adjusted number of overseas trips being made by Aussies, from 848,000 to under 804,000. 

This is one of the ways in which a lower dollar helps to rebalance the economy, by encouraging Aussies to spend at home, and by bringing more tourists into the country.

And, it's demonstrably now working. 


Annual short term arrivals flourishing to a new record high of 8.4 million was largely attributable to visitors from China and other parts of Asia, Japan, and the United States. 


The growth in the number of visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong continues to be astounding, with more than 525,000 arrivals in the first quarter of 2017 alone, being the period which encompasses the Lunar New Year.


On a related point, the number of short term arrivals for education purposes is also tracking at record highs, with the big spike in February reflecting the beginning of the semester.

International students from China in particular are expected to be a key driver of permanent migration into Australia over the coming years. 


The wrap

To reiterate a point made here regularly, it is important not to read too much into the long term arrivals figures.

But there's no doubt that net overseas migration into Australia is on an upwards trajectory, and tracking at 4-year highs.

And the Aussie permanent migration programme will remain at a record ceiling of 190,000.

Meanwhile the lower dollar is encouraging more domestic tourism from home and abroad, which is a positive vibe for Sydney and Queensland.

And, on that note, I'll be wandering off up to the Sunny Coast myself over the weekend.

Cheers for reading and sharing my blog this week - the monthly readership touched 54,000 yesterday - and have a good one!