First homebuyer scheme kicks in
The number of first homebuyer loan commitments increased 6.8 per cent in the December 2025 quarter, as the 5 per cent deposit scheme began to take some effect on the market.
It's still early days for the scheme, though.
The number of investment loans also increased by another 5.5 per cent over the quarter, to be 23.6 per cent higher over the year.
Source: ABS
With loan sizes also increasing, the total value of new loan commitments rose to a record $108.3 billion over the December 2025 quarter, with upwards revisions taking the annual growth all the way up to 23.5 per cent.
The quarterly value of investment lending rose to a new high of $43 billion, up by 31.8 per cent from a year earlier, with a solid pick-up notable in Victoria in the December quarter.
Source: ABS
The average loan size for homebuyers in New South Wales rose from $810,000 to a record $873,000 in 2025, while Queensland also saw a significant increase from $650,000 to $736,000.
The government has been throwing around a few numbers during Question Time about the number of first homebuyers taking up the 5 per cent deposit scheme, but any make shift is not yet evident in these figures.
Source: ABS
In any case, on this basis it looks likely that the bottom quartile of the market will be under some pressure in 2026 as first homebuyers begin to pile in.
New dwelling supply continues to run slowly versus previous cycles, in part because it's taking so much longer to deliver attached dwellings these days.
Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro charted the change:
Indeed, Westpac noted that under 5 per cent of lending was for new dwellings in the December quarter, which was the lowest share on record.
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Commonwealth Bank released its latest half-year results which showed a lift in profits and dividends.
The loan book generally looks in good shape at the moment, with 30-day arrears falling to 1.1 per cent, and most borrowers in decent nick.
Victoria had the highest level of arrears, though no states or territories were particularly high.
90-daye home loan arrears were higher for owner-occupiers versus investors.
Loans in hardship are down 28 per cent since 2024, yet still remain a bit higher than the pre-pandemic level.
With the 3 percentage points lending assessment buffer in place, most loans now go to households with an income of $200,000 or above (while virtually no loans are written to households earning under $100,000).
Source: (ASX: CBA)
The rapid rise in the Aussie dollar continued today, all the way up to 71.1 US cents, touching a 3-year high.
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