Slower money growth
Annual credit growth continued to meander lower to just 4.33 per cent in December 2018, according the latest Reserve Bank financial aggregates.
Housing credit growth also continued to slow quite sharply, to 4.66 per cent from 4.86 per cent a month earlier.
The annual growth in credit for investment housing was the lowest on record at just 1.08 per cent.
That said, the moderately positive monthly figure suggested that the bottom may just about now be in for investor credit growth.
CoreLogic will report 5 capital city aggregate housing prices as being about 7.25 per cent lower over the year to January 2019.
Overlaying a credit impulse model seemingly implies that the house price slowdown should moderate in 2019.
However, there are a number of potential challenges or shortcomings with this model.
The unprecedented boom and bust in Chinese investment could throw the relationship between the housing credit impulse and prices out of kilter, for example.
Moreover, there are so many apartments under construction in Australia - more than ever before through this cycle - that there are off-the-plan buyers trying to rescind contracts all over the shop, meaning that buyers of new apartments are quickly seeing the rug pulled out from underneath them.
