Off to the races
A hyuuuuge payrolls print in the US, with nonfarm payroll employment up by a monster +312,000 in December 2018, and the preceding two months revised up by a total of +58,000.
Bazinga!
That makes it an all-time record 99 months of consecutive employment gains, with the 3-month average gain rising to a massive +254,000, which is the highest since 2015.
Yes, these are backward-looking figures, but the US is clearly a long way from recession on these numbers (historically payrolls have tended to peak about a year ahead of recessions).
A bit more texture: many of these gains were in lower paid sectors, such as retail trade, and hospitality.
Interestingly, the strength in hiring has brought more and more underprivileged workers back into the labor force (a path which Australia has declined to follow, with the marginal employee cast aside on ye holy altar of financial stability!).
The unemployment rate for the Hispanic and Latino labor force also hit the lowest level on record in December 2018 at 4.4 per cent, the equal lowest since records began.
The expanded labor force (+419,000 in December) pushed the unemployment rate up by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 per cent, in turn potentially keeping a lid on any inflationary pressures, which the Fed notes have been muted.
Average earnings popped higher, all the way up to a post-crisis high of +3.2 per cent, well ahead of the rate of inflation, translating to more money to be spent into the economy...which again doesn't sound that recessionary.
Fed's soothing whispers
An excellent set of numbers which may extend the cycle, while the Fed's Powell observed in a prepared speech that there is no preset policy path, growth is steady, and that wages aren't a concern.
And so US stocks are off to the races, with the S&P 500 up by about 3½ per cent at the time of writing.
Tally ho!
Tally ho!
