Immigration steadies
Net immigration slowed to just over +300,000 in 2025, giving some justification to commentators who'd been arguing that population growth is back under control.
That said, the figure is still absolutely miles above the earlier Budget estimates, while more timely indicators from the ABS (labour force data) appear to imply that something of a reacceleration has seemingly taken place in 2026.
Overall, estimated population growth in 2025 was +412,500.
Source: ABS
The outflow of migrants from NSW to Queensland has slowed over recent quarters and appears to be normalising as the housing affordability gap closes.
The Western Australian population surge also looks to be normalising lower now.
Absolute net overseas immigration in calendar year 2025 was strongest by far in New South Wales (+91,000) and Victoria (+85,000).
Source: ABS
The result was estimated population growth of +117,300 in Victoria in 2025, as well as +104,600 in New South Wales, +92,200 in Queensland, and +65,500 in Western Australia.
Source: ABS
Overall, population growth did slow from the blistering all-time highs of post-pandemic 2023 - to an estimated +412,500 in 2025.
However, there may be another burst of immigration to come in 2026 before the slower economy kills the cycle, which is probably going to be politically unpopular given the parlous state of the rental market.
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Elsewhere, Cotality's monthly housing chart pack showed that total new listings may already be fading as confidence among vendors falters.
Source: Cotality
Total stock listings are now higher over the year in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, but the flow of new listings is already now dropping off in Sydney, and in much of regional Australia stock listings remain lower than a year ago.
Source: Cotality
Rental vacancy rates fell -0.2 percentage points back to the record low levels of around 1½ per cent, and rental price growth has continued to reaccelerate (+5.9 per cent over the year to May).
Source: Cotality
As such, rental yields are rising, but not by nearly enough at this stage to assuage prospective investors.
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