Employment flattens through Easter volatility
At first blush it looked like a solid set of numbers for May employment change, with a +40,300 increase in employed persons, albeit mostly part-time roles.
But then when we got into the detail of the release, April's figures were revised down to -40,700, meaning that employment was broadly flat over the past couple of months.
Essentially, there was some seasonal volatility as fewer people took leave than normal over the Easter period.
The 3-month average employment gain was only +6,300.
The participation rate is also well down from the 2024 highs.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell back to 4.4 per cent, though it looks as though the trend is still probably higher from here.
There was little change in underemployment measures, though policymakers will be keeping a close eye on the youth unemployment, rate which is above 10 per cent (and particularly in Victoria where the youth unemployment rate is a concerning 13.2 per cent).
Finally, population growth among the aged 15+ civilian population was revised lower following recent data updates, but remains elevated at 1.76 per cent over the year.
Overall, markets weren't much changed, and indeed the 3-year bond yield was lower over the day at 4.37 per cent, as oil prices completed a round trip all the way back down to where they were when the Iranian conflict began.
A rate hike for August is now priced as less than a 1 in 4 chance.
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