Jobs growth hangs in there
Employment growth had a considerably better time of it in October, following two directionless months, rising +42,200, seasonally adjusted.
This was mainly driven by a +38,400 snap-back in New South Wales, taking employment in the Premier state back up to a new high of above 4½ million persons.
The 3-month average employment growth was only +15,000, but there was a strong tilt to full-time hiring in today's figures for the first time in a little while, giving the numbers a rosier hue.
The unemployment rate pulled back slightly from 4.45 per cent to 4.34 per cent, taking the rounded figure back down, only just, to 4.3 per cent.
The trend for the unemployment rate remains gently higher.
Finally the jump in the underutilisation rate to 10.4 per cent last month was completely reversed, dropping back from whence it came to 10 per cent.
The wrap
Overall, the central bank would have to be pretty happy with this (the governor had said that the September figures likely contained "some signal and some noise", which looks to be about spot on).
OIS pricing allows for just 8 basis points of further easing in this cycle, with markets anticipating a long stretch ahead for interest rates remaining on hold.
There have been some increases in fixed mortgage rates across recent weeks, with Australia's 3-year bond yield now trading well off its lows.
There are likely a couple of seasonally stronger months ahead for hiring, but we can pretty much forget worrying about the labour market falling apart until the first quarter of next year, when more inflation data will have become available.
On the other hand, these figures do suggest that the government's forecasts for immigration in FY26 may prove to be well short of the reality.
James Foster ran through the figures in a bit more detail
here.
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