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Wednesday 14 June 2023

Fed winning versus inflation (time to pause)

US inflation drops further

The US consumer price inflation figures were about in line with expectations, with the annual rate dropping significantly from 4.9 per cent to 4 per cent. 

That's the lowest level of inflation in two years, and a long way down from 9.1 per cent last June. 


Food price inflation has stalled over the past few months of data, which is good to see. 

Somehow shelter is still the main contributor to inflation, although the year-on-year figure for owners' equivalent rent is finally on the way back down now...and this should continue according to provate measures of rent.

The BLS release can be viewed here:


Source: BLS

Over the next month or two price inflation over the year will be getting down towards 3 per cent. 


Indeed, looking at 3-month annualised figures the preferred core inflation measure ex-shelter has already dropped below 3 per cent.


OK, that might be a bit contrived for your liking, but markets are now pricing for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates next month, as the battle versus inflation draws closer to being won.