CapEx recovery is muted
Capital investment moved modestly higher in Q4, despite sluggish investment in equipment, lifted by more building investment in Tasmania and Victoria.
The detailed labour force figures showed the usual seasonal lift in unemployed persons.
It's been a wild ride, from 1 million unemployed persons down to just 460k in the third quarter of last year and a chronic shortage of workers as the lockdowns ended.
But that number of unemployed persons has lifted by more than 100,000 to 561,000 over the past four months, and anecdotally we are well and truly through the worst of the squeeze now.
Gareth Aird of the CBA certainly thinks so.
Australia doesn't really share the risks of a wages breakout with countries such as the US, with immigration now running at record levels.
The RBA's forecasts were for wages growth to peak at 4.2 per cent at the end of this year - and unemployment to reach 3.8 per cent by the end of December - but both of these assumptions may already looking a little shaky.
Today's average weekly earnings growth figures from the ABS lifted to the highest level since May 2020 at 3.4 per cent, mirroring the surprisingly soft wages figures from yesterday.
Xero's wages growth index for small business is also slowing sharply (Macquarie Macro chart):
Gareth Aird from the CBA thinks the Reserve Bank will pause interest rates "very soon" with inflation expectations falling and wages growth running at levels consistent with the inflation target.
