International travel resumes in earnest for Aussies

Holiday time

There was a 20 per cent surge in tourism imports, with more Aussies heading off overseas in December for their summer break.

It was comfortably the biggest result for tourism debits since February 2020, at $3.7 billion.

International students are now expected to come back in to the country in droves from February, which will help to continue addressing labour supply issues.

Total exports were still very strong in December at $57.8 billion, but have eased a fair amount from last year's highs, with the export values of coal, iron ore, and natural gas now all down from their respective peaks (although the annualised figures still look strong!).

Import spending fell back -3.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, in part due to declining fuel prices.

An exception was car imports, which have increased quite sharply as supply chain issues have eased. 

Overall, this resulted in a modest decline in the monthly international trade surplus, to $12.2 billion.

The wrap

The Federal Budget will come storming back towards surplus this year on the back of the past year's record high exports and lately the lowest unemployment rates in around 50 years, leading the Treasurer to hint at cost of living relief measures to be announced in the May budget.

It'll be interesting to watch how population flows play out over the course of 2023.

Aussies are now able to travel more freely again as evidenced in the December tourism figures, but at the moment the net demographic flows seem to be mainly inbound, with population growth thought to be running at record highs at an annual pace of up to +500,000.

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James Foster reviewed the trade figures in more detail here.