Australia's population clock today stands at around 26,063,000...or thereabouts.
A quick look at the Budget papers shows projected net overseas migration of 940,000 over the next four financial years.
Source: Budget papers
Adding in the natural growth of the population, this leads the government to forecast an estimated resident population of 27,421,000 by June 2026, or an increase of about 1.4 million from today.
Source: Budget papers
Of course, nobody can say for sure what will happen over the next four years, but these numbers look well undercooked to me, even based on today's natural population growth.
But mostly it's the rebound in temporary visa holders which looks underdone.
As international students, working holidaymakers, and other temporary visa holders flood back into the country, wouldn't be at all surprising if net overseas migration proves to be at least 1.4 million over the next four years, leading to population growth of nearer 1.8 million over four years.
Whatever, seen in the above context, the pledge to build one million homes over the five years to 2029 is in any case a nothing burger.
It's more likely that we'll need to build well in excess of that number of dwellings to keep pace with the rebound in population growth.
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Producer price index growth was 6.4 per cent over the year to September, which was slower than consumer price inflation.
PPI was still being driven by heavy construction costs, with timber prices still 21 per cent higher than a year earlier, and other metal products up 16 per cent.
Steel prices are up by more than 25 per cent over the year, but the growth in prices here is clearly now fading, which is great to see.
On the plus side, year-on-year growth in input prices for housing construction have slowed from 17.3 per cent to 16 per cent.
Source: ABS
This is far better articulated by James Foster below:
And it's clear from what's happening in the industry in real time that input price growth is heading to zero over the next year, with yet another significant developer insolvency in Queensland notched up this week.
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Bond yields are taking quite a tumble lower now, as the outlook for consumer spending sours.
