Economy losing momentum
Job advertisements fell a further -5.9 per cent last month, according to the government's labour market insights data.
The decline was broad-based, with significant drops in every state and territory.
Westpac's leading index also tumbled to the lowest level since the pandemic hit, pointing to a major loss of momentum in the Aussie economy.
With the inflationary pulse set to fade, this vibe forms the basis of Gareth Aird's view at CBA that only one further interest rate hike of 25 basis points will be needed in this cycle.
Source: CBA
CBA notes that unemployment expectations are also now rising sharply,.
Source: CBA
CBA's wage price measures show no risk of a wage price spiral, with wage payments up about 3 per cent over the year to September.
The Reserve Bank's Michele Bullock also noted yesterday that the RBA is looking at timelier measures of wages growth.
The ABS figures could pick up from year, but the wage price index would take until June 2023 (reported in August 2023) to reach 3½ per cent, and we'll be an epic economic slowdown by then.
Hence Aird's view that the terminal cash rate target will be 2.85 per cent.
