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Wednesday 27 October 2021

Underlying inflation breaches 2 per cent

Inflation stirs

Inflation came in at 0.8 per cent for the September quarter.

The figure for headline inflation over the year fell on the base effect, broadly as expected, back down to 3 per cent. 


The underlying measures increased by 0.7 per cent for the quarter, with the 12-month pace picking up from 1.6 per cent to 2.1 per cent.

As such for the first time in years this means that the annual pace of underlying inflation has moved above 2 per cent. 


One swallow hardly makes a summer, though.

Inflation has languished below target for years, and annual wages growth hasn't even reached 2 per cent at this stage, let alone being sustained at 3 per cent.

Since 2013 and the end of the resources construction boom, Australia has persistently struggled with an output gap.


Inflation in rental markets may have turned positive, but there's still a two-speed dynamic at play, and more supply is now coming online.


The wrap

Overall, there was a surge in new dwelling prices, and fuel - with auto fuel prices now at record highs - as well as some inflation in motor vehicles and durable goods such as furnishings, but not much else to raise excitement at this stage.

A bit of jostling ensued in financial markets, and futures are tentatively pricing for an interest rate hike in the second half of next year. 

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More detail as ever from the data king James Foster here