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Wednesday, 3 July 2019

Unit pipeline shrinking fast

Pipeline being worked off

Sydney and Melbourne unit approvals continued to trend lower in May 2019.


In particular, higher-density approvals are being battered lower.

This will doubtless continue for as long as states persist with stamp duty and land tax surcharges for non-residents.

Notably these figures pre-date the latest round of building defect headlines, this time from Mascot. 


Piecing it together house approvals declined, keeping the downtrend in place, from above 20,000 approvals per month in 2016 to about 14,500 in May 2019.


Figures produced by RiskWise showed that the unit pipeline has shrunk dramatically since 2017 in New South Wales (-38 per cent), Victoria (-38 per cent), and Queensland (-29 per cent). 

The Reserve Bank forecasts see population growth outstripping the growth in the dwelling supply by the end of the forecast period.

Certainly the Budget assumed a population explosion over the coming years, with population growth already tracking at more than 400,000 per annum. 

Unit supply still exceeds demand in parts of Sydney (especially in Parramatta and Blacktown), inner-city Brisbane, and inner-city/inner east Melbourne, according to RiskWise research.