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Wednesday, 24 July 2019

Housing sentiment highest since 2015

Housing pulse rebounds

Westpac's Red Book for July 2019 revealed a mixed picture, with troubling consumer sentiment still stuck at below average levels. 

Housing sentiment has shown a much clearer response to lower interest rates. 

The 'time to buy a dwelling' index increased again in the 3 months to July and is now 36.8 per cent higher than the mid-2017 nadir to sit at above average levels, led by New South Wales and Victoria. 

But the biggest change in response to the election result and interest rate cuts has been to house price expectations.

The house price expectations index has jumped 33.5 per cent higher in only two months between May and July.

Westpac's composite housing sentiment index has historically been very good at picking turning points in housing market turnover.

There's some downwards pressure on the composite index due to modestly rising unemployment expectations, but overall sentiment is at the highest levels since 2015 and trending sharply higher. 


Source: Westpac

This foreshadows a likely recovery in the number of sales over the coming months.

New stock levels are presently very suppressed, with stock turnover plunging to 30-year lows earlier this year as election uncertainty abounded. 

At the state level the housing sentiment index has been driven by rising sentiment in New South Wales, and then Victoria.