Jobs still a-comin'...
Interesting jobs figures once again today, with employment up +28,400, taking annual employment growth all the way up to +322,900 or +2.58 per cent, which isn't far off double the rate of population growth. A weak composition this month, though, with full time jobs falling.
Employment was all about New South Wales in April at +25,000, taking the annual gains for the Premier State to +130,000, ahead of Victoria (+124,000), and Queensland (+51,000).
Unemployment now rising
The unemployment rate increased to the highest level in 8 months at 5.20 per cent, so if NAIRU is around 4½ per cent as previously implied then we're a long way from that and drifting further afield.
Zooming in the chart, the trend for unemployment has increased for 4 consecutive months now, to 5.11 per cent.
Rising participation is a good thing, but the underemployment rate jumped from 8.2 per cent to 8.5 per cent, again pointing to plenty of slack.
More folks have been pulled back into the labour force in Melbourne and Sydney, but hanging out a bit in regional Queensland lately delivered a timely reminder that many other parts of Australia are lacking in propulsion.
New South Wales (4.3 per cent) and Victoria (4.8 per cent) have low unemployment rates, but it is not so elsewhere.
Finally, the trend annual growth in hours worked improved a bit to +2.8 per cent, hinted at a glimmer of hope.
Pressure building
Some good news on total employment and hours worked, but with the unemployment now rising again interest rates are deemed likely to fall, and soon. Even HSBC is now calling for immediate rate cuts, having been hawkish since forever.
While the RBA could make a case for sitting pat the forward-looking indicators have turned badly against the prevailing jobs momentum, with SEEK's advertisements down more than 20 per cent year-on-year (election timing may have been a factor).
Wage price growth was also soft in the first quarter of 2019. The Reserve Bank's mandate now includes hitting an inflation target of 2 to 3 per cent, on average over the medium term, and full employment.
