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Saturday 4 May 2019

Yields fall

Yields hammered

The week ahead will be dominated for financial market types by talk of interest rates, just for a change.

Here's a look at what happened to bond yields when core inflation decelerated for the March 2019 quarter.

A fairly dramatic year or two (click to expand the chart). 


Yields had already been pushed lower by the credit squeeze, the Royal Commission, and some other factors. 

And now markets appear to have lost confidence in the narrative of inflation gradually meandering back to target.

With futures markets tentatively pricing in rate cuts over the year ahead, yields on 2, 3 and 5-year government bonds hovering around fresh lows over the past fortnight.

Short-term funding costs have plummeted, which is handy news for banks and lenders. 

The Reserve Bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, at 2.30pm.

Thankfully there is some other news to look at this week, though it's Labour Day in Queensland on Monday.

As the week rolls in there is international trade to look at, plus the latest retail trade figures.