Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

4 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete Wargent is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision, author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

Thursday, 14 September 2017

Jobs explosion shatters forecasts

Jobs explosion

Employment growth shattered expectations with an 11th consecutive monthly gain, tearing up by +54,200 in August, including another +40,100 surge in full-time employment. 

It's a case of choose your favourite statistic here: more than quarter a million jobs created in six months would have to be one of the most impressive, while annual full-time employment growth is now at a scorching +3.1 per cent. Golly!


Over the past year employment has lifted by +325,600 or +2.73 per cent, and if rising job advertisements prove to be a worthy indicator, then calendar 2017 could yet be Australia's greatest ever year for employment growth. 


Most of the jobs have been created in New South Wales (+71,600 over the year to August 2017) and Victoria (+95,500) until lately. But after a protracted lull, Queensland is now the surprise package (+95,400), albeit largely driven by part-time employment. 


The detailed figures will confirm in due course, but infrastructure has been a likely creator of jobs, along with the tourism and education boom, and healthcare. 

Participation surges

There were sizeable drops in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates in Queensland (5.7 per cent) and South Australia (5.7 per cent), while the smoother trend figures continue to show daylight between New South Wales (4.9 per cent) and the rest.


There has been a substantial lift in the participation rate from 64.6 per cent to 65.3 per cent so far in 2017, a useful indicator of labour market strength, with female participation now at the highest level on record. The employment to population ratio is also now at its highest level in nearly half a decade at 61.6 per cent.

Accordingly inroads into the headline unemployment rate have been somewhat muted, although the trend has been down over the past three years or so. 


Finally the trend in monthly hours worked shows a +2.7 per cent annual lift, which is the best growth in 6.5 years. 


The wrap

Overall, this was a huge result, with welcome improvements for Queensland and South Australia, although scepticism remains as to whether this rate of employment growth can continue into 2018.

Underemployment and underutilisation both fell over the three months to August. A fair amount of slack, but still, a very good report.