Pete Wargent blogspot

Co-founder & CEO of AllenWargent property buyer's agents, offices in Brisbane (Riverside) & Sydney (Martin Place), and CEO of WargentAdvisory (providing subscription analysis, reports & services to institutional clients).

5 x finance/investment author - 'Get a Financial Grip: a simple plan for financial freedom’ (2012) rated Top 10 finance books by Money Magazine & Dymocks.

"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Friday, 8 September 2017

Home loans back in favour

Homebuyers loans hit record

There are several possible risks facing Australia's housing markets: a change in sentiment leading people to stop buying homes, the crackdown on investor lending, rising interest rates, and a glut of new homes to be absorbed. 

I heard Tapas Strickland of NAB note that he just can't see a meaningful housing correction coming looking at the fundamentals, and on today's evidence he will be proven right.

A couple of dozen lenders have dropped their mortgage rates since July 1 to entice homebuyers back into the market, and even by the end of July this was clearly working. 

Not only have homebuyers not shunned the market, they are coming back in droves, with the number of owner-occupier commitments excluding refinancing surging 4.5 per cent higher in July, with the trend result rising to the highest level since the financial crisis stimulus. 

Loans for the purchase of established dwellings jumped 5 per cent in July, and average loan sizes are gently trending to new highs too. 

As a result, owner-occupier commitments rose to a record high in July 2017, helping to offset a 7-month decline in investor loans, with total monthly housing finance still tracking at around $33 billion. 

First homebuyer incentives are also back in play from July 2017 forth, and the number of first homebuyer loans immediately rose to the highest level in 44 months.

The number of first homebuyer loans in New South Wales jumped to the highest level since 2012, while in Victoria the figure hit the highest level since 2013, consistently reflected in rocketing auction results in markets such as Geelong. 

In fact, my state level analysis, not posted here, shows that homebuyers in Victoria are by far the most ebullient of all states and territories, with new loan activity in New South Wales also rising.

Finally, as for the glut of new stock, there was upbeat news here too, with the number of homebuyers financing new dwellings accelerating to the highest level in 38 years. 

New home sales are trending down, suggesting that the rate of construction will fall over the next few years, but on this evidence homebuyers will gladly mop up the new stock as it's released to the market (on the flip side, taxes will slow buyers from offshore investors, while domestic investors are finding it harder to access credit). 

A lot of people seem frustrated by this, but the housing juggernaut does not conform to ideologies, and for now it continues to power on.