Temp visas (ex-visitors) rise 8pc to new high

Temp visas surge

The total number of temporary visas in Australia rose to 2.8 million in September (it's not the strongest time of year for temporary entrants).

Excluding visitors, temporary visa number rose to 2,464,000, an increase of around 8 per cent or 164,000 from a year earlier.

Visa numbers are set to rise to a new high of 3 million in due course.

International student visa numbers nudged up to a new high of 720,000. 

It looks as though both the Coalition and the Greens will vote against international student caps, so there will be no changes here until 2026 at the earliest (if there are to be any changes at all). 

The rental crisis has eased a little as tenants bunch up, but it hasn't gone away.

There will likely be a demand-driven crush for good-quality rentals in 2025. 

Melbourne will be an interesting test case, given that the total number of rentals actually fell by around 20,000 over the year, with more landlords selling up and first homebuyers coming into the market.

Nationally the rental vacancy rate tightened a little in October to just 1.2 per cent. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense: This is what Trump’s clean sweep means for markets

2-Sense podcast

This week, Chris and I considered the US election result and what it means for markets.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

NAB property forecasts for 2025

NAB forecasts

From NAB, 2025 property price forecasts by capital city:

NAB has pushed out its call for the first interest rate cut of the cycle to May 2025, with some other major banks still leaning towards February. 

Property price growth is expected to be a little cooler next year across most capital cities, with Melbourne turning positive.

More from NAB here.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Aussie labour market still holding up well

Employment holds up

Employment growth was lower than expected in October, at around +15,900.

Still that comes off the back of a string of strong results, and total employment rose to a fresh record high of 14,537,500, seasonally adjusted. 

Despite the slowdown, employment was still +2.7 per cent higher than a year earlier, for an increase of 387,100. 

The number of unemployed persons rose by 8,300, to a total of 625,800.

This nudged the unemployment rate slightly up from 4.08 per cent to 4.13 per cent, but still this remains lower than was reported for the month of July (4.23 per cent, seasonally adjusted).  

The growth in monthly hours worked was softer, increasing only +0.1 per cent over the month.

Still, the Reserve Bank will be keenly monitoring youth unemployment and the underemployment rate, and there's been no deterioration to speak of here.

In fact, the underemployment and underutilisation measures have been surprisingly upbeat throughout the whole of 2024 calendar year to date. 

At the state level, this was a massive month for Queensland, with employment growing by +1.3 per cent, but there wasn't so much action elsewhere. 

Queensland has a very low unemployment rate of only 3.9 per cent, while Victoria's unemployment rate is a fair bit higher now at 4½ per cent. 

The Aussie dollar moved slightly lower from 64.9 to 64.8 US cents on the slightly softer figures, but it's not much of a change to the outlook overall. 

James Foster ran through the detailed figures here.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

US inflation 0.2pc, rate cut to follow (probably)

Inflation as expected

Headline US inflation once again came in at 0.2 per cent in October, continuing a string of similar results over recent months,

The headline rate of inflation was slightly higher at 2.6 per cent due the base effect (though by February and March some much strong comparative figures will be dropping out of annual result.

Inflation continues to be driven by shelter (0.4 per cent), which accounted for over half of the monthly all items increase.

Core inflation was 0.28 per cent for the month, though, and remains a bit high for comfort at 3.3 per cent.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Overall, this result was pretty much in line with expectations, and markets liked that there were no undue upside surprises.

The US 2-year treasury yield settled 6 basis points lower, as markets expect there to be enough headroom for another interest rate cut to be delivered in December. 

Today in Australia sees the release of the latest labour force figures, which markets expecting another solid increase in employment, and the unemployment rate holding at a low level of around 4.1 per cent.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Wages growth disappoints...again

Wages disappoint, again

Australia's wage price index does have a bit of a history of disappointing expectations, it must be said, and it didn't fail to disappoint again this quarter!

After missing market expectations with 0.8 per cent wage price growth in the June 2024 quarter, the index again missed median market expectations in increasing by a seasonally adjusted 0.8 per cent in the September quarter as well. 

Over the past 5 quarters, the wage price pressures have ebbed away...

Over the year, wage price growth slowed from 4.1 per cent last quarter to 3½ per cent in the September quarter, and we're heading down to around 3¼ per cent in due course. 

This is the first time annual wage price growth has been below 4 per cent since the June quarter of 2023. 

The ABS reported that the softening has in part been related to the Fair Work Commission Annual Wage Review decision, which directly impacts pay increases across many roles:

"The latest decision of a 3.75 per cent wage increase paid from 1 July 2024 was lower than the September quarter 2023 increase of 5.75 per cent. 

It was also lower than the Commission’s September quarter 2022 awarded increase of between 4.6 per cent and 5.2 per cent".

Public sector wages growth dropped from 3.9 per cent to 3.7 per cent over the year to September 2024.

Private sector wages growth fell from 4.1 per cent to 3½ per cent, which at face value seems a bit more dramatic, but is in truth largely a function of the different timing of last years pay rises between the public and private sectors. 

This was the lowest annual figure for private sector wage price growth since 2022. 

In real time, wage price pressures between the sectors aren't too dissimilar, and are softening in tandem.

At the state level, the strongest wage price growth over the year was seen in Tasmania (+4 per cent), galloping Queensland (+3.9 per cent), and New South Wales (+3.6 per cent).

The weakest growth was seen in indebted Victoria (+3.2 per cent) and the Northern Territory (+3 per cent). 

In other news, Jobs & Skills Australia reported job advertisements decreasing modestly by -2.3 per cent (or -5,300 advertisements) in October, to a still solid 226,500. 

Source: Aus Gov

The wrap

Overall, the wage price figures were a pretty soft set of numbers, which missed expectations.

About ¼ of the contribution to increased wages this time around related to healthcare, social assistance, and NDIS roles, with the sector continuing to expand rapidly. 

CBA predicts that with most workers saving their tax cuts to build up their buffers, policy interest rates will be on the way down from February, but at the same time recent market moves have seen government bond yields move higher in response to international developments. 

James Foster ran through the detailed wages growth figures here.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Immigration about 10pc off the highs

Immigration easing, steadily

The ABS released the latest overseas arrivals and departures figures for September 2024.

Net permanent and long-term immigration in Australia is generally fairly quiet in September, before picking up between October and January on a seasonal basis. 

Over the year to September, net long-term arrivals were still running at extremely high levels at +449,000, albeit this is down by about -10 per cent from the February 2024 highs of nearly ½ million.

Although this annual figure is off the highs, a record of over 30,000 international students arrived in September, and it was still the biggest first 9 months of the calendar year on record at +392,000 net long-term immigration, narrowly eclipsing the record set in 2023. 

New Zealand's economy and labour market is softening significantly, swinging net movements in Australia's direction across the Tasman, while there's still a large backlog of international student visa applications to be cleared yet.

Underlying trends

You can see in the graph above that people are feeling a little more confident about moving overseas now, and long-term departures are gradually trending up. 

That having been said, the provisional figures for October 2024 do look to be quite strong, with almost 2 million total arrivals to be expected.

Tourism and short-term arrivals figures in Australia have increased every year since the pandemic lows, but still remain below pre-pandemic trends across all states and territories, largely due to fewer Chinese visitors (although these figures are recovering). 

Source: ABS

Indeed, SQM Research reported a small decline in rental vacancy rates in October 2024, at 1.2 per cent nationally, with 6 of the 8 capital cities recording declines.

Although rental vacancies could become tight over the Xmas/New Year period, asking rents were essentially flat over the month. 

Price pressures easing

In other news, the NAB Survey seems to be sort of stabilising, with a decent rebound in business confidence in October, into positive territory.

The best part of the release was that product and final product price pressures have slowed considerably now. 

Source: NAB

Westpac's latest survey showed that consumers are much more upbeat about the prospect of buying a home in Melbourne, which is probably a forerunning indicator to a property market recovery in Victoria. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense: Last call for rate hawks as supply dries up

2-Sense podcast

You can catch our US election predictions and all this week's property news here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here: