Immigration easing, steadily
The ABS released the latest overseas arrivals and departures figures for September 2024.
Net permanent and long-term immigration in Australia is generally fairly quiet in September, before picking up between October and January on a seasonal basis.
Over the year to September, net long-term arrivals were still running at extremely high levels at +449,000, albeit this is down by about -10 per cent from the February 2024 highs of nearly ½ million.
Although this annual figure is off the highs, a record of over 30,000 international students arrived in September, and it was still the biggest first 9 months of the calendar year on record at +392,000 net long-term immigration, narrowly eclipsing the record set in 2023.
New Zealand's economy and labour market is softening significantly, swinging net movements in Australia's direction across the Tasman, while there's still a large backlog of international student visa applications to be cleared yet.
Underlying trends
You can see in the graph above that people are feeling a little more confident about moving overseas now, and long-term departures are gradually trending up.
That having been said, the provisional figures for October 2024 do look to be quite strong, with almost 2 million total arrivals to be expected.
Tourism and short-term arrivals figures in Australia have increased every year since the pandemic lows, but still remain below pre-pandemic trends across all states and territories, largely due to fewer Chinese visitors (although these figures are recovering).
Source: ABS
Indeed, SQM Research
reported a small decline in rental vacancy rates in October 2024, at 1.2 per cent nationally, with 6 of the 8 capital cities recording declines.
Although rental vacancies could become tight over the Xmas/New Year period, asking rents were essentially flat over the month.
Price pressures easing
In other news, the NAB Survey seems to be sort of stabilising, with a decent rebound in business confidence in October, into positive territory.
The best part of the release was that product and final product price pressures have slowed considerably now.
Source: NAB
Westpac's latest survey showed that consumers are much more upbeat about the prospect of buying a home in Melbourne, which is probably a forerunning indicator to a property market recovery in Victoria.
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