Business credit remains solid

Solid credit growth

Yesterday the CapEx figures showed a solid rise for the September 2024 quarter, although investment plans for the financial year ahead do seem to be fading now, coming in a bit lower than expected. 

In a similar vein, the Reserve Bank of Australia's financial aggregates figures showed business credit growth rising by 1 per cent in October, to be a very solid 8.3 per cent higher over the year.

Total credit growth in the Aussie economy picked up to 5.3 per cent, stronger than the 4.8 per cent growth of a year ago, but there are probably now some headwinds to be faced in 2025. 

Housing credit growth also increased to 5.3 per cent over the year to October, up from 5.1 per cent in the preceding month. 

Although many landlords have been selling up, especially in Victoria, the figures showed that in aggregate investors are coming back into the housing market. 

Despite this, the housing credit impulse does seem to be fading into the end of the calendar year.

Overall, pretty solid numbers, which are consistent with more modest price growth in the housing market. 

It looks like domestic demand will be solid enough in next week's GDP figures, which should keep GDP growth in positive territory, perhaps at around 1 per cent over the year to September 2024. 

James Foster ran through the detailed GDP preview here, implying quarterly growth of just 0.4 per cent.

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