Podcast episode #41: On saying no

Buffett mini-series - part V

In the 5th part of our Buffett mini-series, we look at the ability to say "no".

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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Podcast preview

Podcast preview

This week on the podcast we'll be covering the next part of our Buffett mini-series, this week on the ability say "no"...

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You can download our new e-book here.

You can listen to the whole podcast series here.

You can tune in to the full podcast series at Soundcloud, Stitcher, or Spotify.

Don't forget to leave us a friendly review, as it helps us to get the word out.  

Frenzy passing?

Calming down

Having failed to call the turning point in the housing market, within a matter of just a few short months the expert commentators are out in force to demand cooling measures.

It's almost as if the commentary is continually running 3-6 months behind the reality, since the peak of the buying frenzy may already have passed.

Once there was a time when you'd let supply and demand determine prices, but now there are endless calls for tinkering to constantly fine-tune housing prices and activity in the country's most expensive city. 

Over the past couple of weeks final auction clearance rates have already moved a notch lower, and housing finance figures were down a bit last month too. 

And this weekend, despite a strong preliminary result in Sydney, drizzly Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate was well under 75 per cent, as more sellers bring stock to the market. 

Source: Domain

Something I've noticed over the years is that you'll often get a much better feel for what's going on from listening to mortgage brokers, buyer's agents, or auctioneers (and selling agents when...at least when they aren't in sales mode!), much more so than from analysts and investment bankers poring over historic data from a few months earlier. 

Straight from the auction coalface...

Detached house building approvals have soared to all-time highs this year, so we can expect to see a corresponding uplift in new dwelling supply in H2 2021.

And with the vaccine rollout floundering, there's almost no immigration to soak it up, so this will act as a natural coolant. 

Therefore it won't be a surprise to see the frenzy pass as more vendors look to cash out later in the year, which will almost certainly calm things down. 

EU better believe it

European vaccine rollout

There's no doubt that the cold European winter has been tough, with huge waves of the COVID-19 virus sweeping across most countries.

As I've painstakingly chronicled each day on Twitter, the United Kingdom has absolutely aced its vaccine rollout - with 32 million persons having received at least one vaccine dose and the rollout switching focus to second doses - to the extent that deaths within 28 days of a positive test (itself a woolly measure at the best of times) have fallen by 98 per cent since peaking in January.

Better still the vaccines seem to be tremendously effective at stopping serious illness and the spread of the virus, with UK hospital admissions also falling by more than 95 per cent, and cases totally collapsing.

It's been a different story on the continent, where the initial rollout of vaccine doses was bungled.

The good news is that - finally - countries across Europe are beginning to hit their straps, with Germany punching through nearly 1.4 million doses in a 48-hour period this week. 

Several European countries aren't too far behind (in fact many are ahead of Germany in terms of the percentage of the population vaccinated). 

All of the countries in the chart above will soon pass 20 per cent of the total population vaccinated, and if the experiences of Israel and the UK are mirrored then deaths with COVID-19 will also soon plummet. 

Indeed since serious virus cases tend to skew heavily to the elderly, and as the weather warms up, we are probably into the home straight for most European countries, even though it may not feel like it today.

The warmer climes may already be righting themselves. 

Australia was a very later starter on its own vaccine rollout, with just 1.1 million doses administered to date.

Weekend reads

Must see articles of the week

This week a look at tighter listings, and the sudden upward shift in prices in Sydney.

See here for more (or click on the image below):

You can subscribe for the free podcast here. 

5 answers to the most frequently asked questions about short-term rentals

Short-term lets

Some answers to the most commonly asked questions about short-stay rentals - see here (or click on the image below):

Straya!

Confidence above average

Australia is doing something right.

Consumer confidence tracking very favourably against the 10-year average. 

In fact, Australia leads the developed world on this metric, with business confidence also now running very strong. 

Source: Macro Markets Daily

Japan and Germany are the laggards. 

Listings decline, even in March

Stock tightens

Total property listings on a national basis actually declined by 0.5 per cent in March, showing that absorption continues to outpace new listings. 

A year ago in March 2020 national listings were 307,915, but they declined over the year to March 2021 to 256,568.

Over the past year, there's been some serious declines everywhere from Brisbane to Adelaide, and from Hobart to Canberra and Darwin. 

Only Melbourne has seen a 9 per cent year-on-year increase in listings.

Melbourne's aged listings (180 days plus) have piled up towards 9,000, largely relating to units in the CBD and the city fringe, even while the wider market has been tightening. 

For reference, CoreLogic also sees listings running far below their 5-year average.

Source: CoreLogic

Overall, it remains a tight market for buyers.