Calming down
Having failed to call the turning point in the housing market, within a matter of just a few short months the expert commentators are out in force to demand cooling measures.
It's almost as if the commentary is continually running 3-6 months behind the reality, since the peak of the buying frenzy may already have passed.
Once there was a time when you'd let supply and demand determine prices, but now there are endless calls for tinkering to constantly fine-tune housing prices and activity in the country's most expensive city.
Over the past couple of weeks final auction clearance rates have already moved a notch lower, and housing finance figures were down a bit last month too.
And this weekend, despite a strong preliminary result in Sydney, drizzly Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate was well under 75 per cent, as more sellers bring stock to the market.
Source: Domain
Something I've noticed over the years is that you'll often get a much better feel for what's going on from listening to mortgage brokers, buyer's agents, or auctioneers (and selling agents when...at least when they aren't in sales mode!), much more so than from analysts and investment bankers poring over historic data from a few months earlier.
Straight from the auction coalface...
Detached house building approvals have soared to all-time highs this year, so we can expect to see a corresponding uplift in new dwelling supply in H2 2021.
And with the vaccine rollout floundering, there's almost no immigration to soak it up, so this will act as a natural coolant.
Therefore it won't be a surprise to see the frenzy pass as more vendors look to cash out later in the year, which will almost certainly calm things down.
