Lending cools
The first signs of caution, with owner-occupier lending pulling back by 1.8 per cent to $21.7 billion in February.
Investment lending increased to $6.9 billion in the month, though that remains a long way below the double-digit-billions levels we saw back in 2015.
Not all of the housing lending is for existing dwellings.
There was a jump of 82 per cent for volatile construction finance in February, for example, to $2.6 billion.
Home loan borrowers in in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia exercised a bit more caution in February (though admittedly February is a short month).
First homebuyer numbers are now peaking out, especially in New South wales, and will gradually return to earth from here.
There's been a bit of media noise about riskier lending, but the average loan size for the purchase of existing dwellings pulled back in February.
Running a smoother 3-month average we can see that loan sizes increased by about 6 per cent over the past year, roughly in line with disposable incomes, and also in line with what one might expect to see given lower mortgage rates.
A tick in the box for my thesis that borrowers will naturally become more cautions as 2021 rolls on, with homebuyers being replaced by more investors over time.
