Arrivals picking up
Net arrivals into Australia accelerated to +200,000 in October.
Source: ABS
Arrivals have been significantly outpacing departures since July.
It's likely that November will be a flatter month, but with net student arrivals accelerating and permanent migration set to rise from very low levels today to record highs in 2023, it looks as though 2023 will likely be a record year for population growth in Australia.
This is welcome news for labour force capacity constraints, and it's already evident that far fewer retail and hospitality roles are being advertised, as working holidaymakers and students return.
Rental market pressures
Rental price inflation picked up again to +10.2 per cent over the year to November according to CoreLogic.
Source: CoreLogic
In my experience, rents for well-located capital city units have increased by more than +20 per cent over the past year, albeit they were coming from a lower base.
On the other hand, rental listings are now rising in some outer and regional areas, such as the Blue Mountains, Wollongong, and other less central locations.
Source: CoreLogic
Many coastal markets remain tight.
CoreLogic sees the median rent on a national basis at $550/week, up by +10 per cent from a year ago.
Rental vacancy rates are running at just 1 per cent, down from above 2 per cent a year earlier.
Looking ahead, it appears likely that population growth could soar to around +500,000 in 2023, and with lending assessment buffers still at emergency 300 basis points levels, there will be no respite forthcoming from private rental supply.
The dwelling construction pipeline has also slowed this year.
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For sale listings never really fired this selling season, and are now -26.3 per cent below their 5-year average, reflective of full employment and relatively few forced sellers around.
Source: CoreLogic
