Record pipeline
Dwelling commencements fell, perhaps as might have been expected, to around 49,000 in the first quarter of 2022, while the value of building work done in the quarter also ticked lower.
There was some weather disruption early in the year, from flooding, as well as staff shortages, which may have stymied dwelling starts to some extent.
Despite the downturn in dwelling starts, there were still some 240,000 dwellings under construction, a record high driven by the preceding HomeBuilder stimulus (some 80 per cent above pre-COVID levels).
Even as at March there were still more than 100,000 new detached homes being built, although this number will likely now decline from here.
There was also a bit of a lift in the number of attached dwellings under construction, large driven by a few major apartment developments in Melbourne.
Overall, we should expect commencements to be lower than at their peak from here, but plenty of completions to flow through over the coming months, in turn keeping builders busy until 2023.
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Bloomberg's commodities indices have dropped for an 8th consecutive week, for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century.
While this week's official inflation figures from the US are likely to be high - and perhaps very high - 1-year breakevens are cascading lower very quickly now (as the last 'hot' headline figure is about to wash through).
The Fed may be cutting interest rates again by 2023.
