Investors return
Investment lending finally began to pick up momentum in March, increasing 12.7 per cent to $7.8 billion.
In 2015 monthly investment lending briefly topped $10 billion, so given the increase in incomes and housing equity since then, plus the huge decline in mortgage rates, investor lending still potentially has room to double from here.
First homebuyer numbers, on the other hand, may well already have peaked.
Although first homebuyers in Sydney continued to surge, elsewhere the peak of activity appears to have been near the beginning of the calendar year.
New South Wales was also the standout for owner-occupier lending, with steadier results elsewhere, suggesting that the strongest capital city price growth this year might be seen in Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne, although results will vary significantly by property type and location (and all markets have seen a significant increase in lending).
The average loan size has trended higher over the past year, though not dramatically, with household incomes bolstered by stimulus cheques.
RBA a bit more hawkish
Overall, a solid result with housing finance excluding refinancing increasing to $30.2 billion, which is 55 per cent higher than the panicked result for the same time last year.
It's amazing how much can change in a year.
The Reserve Bank left the target cash rate on hold today at 0.10 per cent, and continued to state that the conditions for a change would likely not be met until 2024 at the earliest.
Interestingly the RBA held off switching from targeting the yield on April 2024 to November 2024 bonds until the July meeting, which could prove to be a hawkish signal if not followed through, and there's a fair amount of economic data to flow between now and then.
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Commodity prices have ripped 35 per cent higher over the year to April 2021, driven by bullish iron ore price action.
The figure would be even higher if using spot prices for the bulk commodities, with a massive 43 per cent lift.
