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Tuesday, 23 April 2019

FONGO is not a thing (prices flat)

New stock drying up

So many new housing market acronyms doing the rounds: including FONGO ("fear of not getting out") in Sydney.

It's not supported by the facts, though. 

We've got a couple of searches on in Sydney at the moment, and quality new listings seem to be few and far between. 

Compare the surge in new April listings last year (brown line) to the plunge in new listings this year (black line). 


Source: CoreLogic

Amazingly insightful data series from CoreLogic as always.

New listings in Sydney are down by 29 per cent year-on-year, which is essentially the opposite of 'FONGO'.

In Melbourne new listings are down by a third from a year earlier.


This shows that Sydneysiders aren't selling unless they have to.

Total stock listings are still a bit higher year-on-year, but that's not too surprising.

After all, if you've signed a exclusive agency agreement and your home hasn't sold, you'll most likely leave the listing live until it expires.

Pulling up the ladder

Overall, though, owners in Sydney are clearly pulling up the ladder.

There is no rush for the exits, and in fact new listings are by far at the lowest level in many years (despite rampant population growth over the time period in question).

CoreLogic also reported that home prices in the capitals stopped falling last week, not that I'm much of a believer in real-time price reporting.

In any case, another step closer to the bottom of the cycle.