Most borrowers taking variable rates now

Recruitment eases

The government's latest recruitment insights report show that the recruitment difficulty rate fell from 50 per cent to 47 per cent last month (well down from above 70 per cent at the pandemic highs). 

The proportion of recruiting employment unable to fill vacancies within a month also fell sharply from 48 per cent to 43 per cent. 

I joined Andrew and the team at ausbiz TV to discuss all the latest property market news here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Rental inflation is beyond the peak

Rent inflation peaks

CoreLogic released its latest rental market update for Q4 2024, and it seems that rental price inflation has, in their words, "well and truly peaked".

In fact, rents were up 4.8 per cent over the year, well down from the 8.1 per cent increase in 2023,

This was the lowest annual increase since all the way back in March 2021, mirroring data from SQM Research's asking rents series. 

Perhaps the biggest surprise was a -0.5 per cent quarterly decline in rents in Melbourne, despite the investor exodus.

CoreLogic noted that rents have increased by 36 per cent nationally since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. 

Despite the slow rate of building as compared to population growth, rental vacancy rates had eased from 1.4 per cent to 1.9 per cent by December, as renters adjusted to more expensive leases.

December can be a quieter time of year for the residential leasing market as Aussies head overseas, so it will be interesting to see how things shape up in January and February. 

Inflation easing

Rents make up around 6 per cent of the consumer price index basket, and have been a significant contributor to inflation since 2021, alongside the steepling cost of building a new home.

It seems that price pressures in both of these areas have peaked, while government subsidies for energy have suppressed headline inflation on electricity bills. 

The quarterly inflation figures are due for release next week. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

2-Sense: This is what the election countdown means for property

2-Sense podcast

Join Batesy and I as we discuss the election countdown, and what it means for property.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

4 reasons mortgage arrears rates are down

Mortgage arrears rates ease

Contrary to the popular narrative mortgage arrears rates have eased through 2024.

But why? Here are 4 likely reasons.

Firstly, it's partly due to dilution and strong new issuance, with home loan balances about 6 per cent higher than a year earlier in November 2024.

So while there is mortgage stress in some parts of the market, it's been somewhat masked in percentage terms by strong new lending.

Secondly, non-conforming loan arrears have been falling throughout 2024.

Things were starting to look a bit funky in this sector in 2022 and 2023, perhaps largely a function of these loans being a pandemic 'release valve', but lending standards these days are a lot more stringent than they used to be.

Thirdly, when mortgage arrears were relatively more elevated before 2020 this was mainly driven by high rates of arrears in Western Australia (resources downturn and recession) and Queensland (flooding).

But both of these states are now firing and their respective mortgage arrears rates have plummeted, and spectacularly so in the case of Western Australia. 

Finally, we've lived through a period with the lowest rental vacancy rates on record - even lower than we saw in 2006 - at a time when the economy has been in full employment.

Thus, while some investors have chosen to sell up in Victoria, most landlords are managing just fine, and 30-plus day mortgage arrears rates for investment loans declined through 2024, to be under 1 per cent.

30-plus day arrears rates for owner-occupiers also eased through 2024, from around 1½ per cent to 1.3 per cent. 

Lenders have also moved to assist stressed borrowers with hardship provisions.

The wrap

Overall, the figures seem to suggest that, by and large, things are functioning as they should.

Tighter monetary policy has slowed consumer spending and building approvals - while wages price growth and inflation are also falling in lockstep - but despite some mortgage stress this hasn't led to an alarming or calamitous spike in arrears rates.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Net immigration stabilises...at elevated levels

Net immigration stable

There were 77,410 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in November 2024, a very similar figure to November 2023.

Permanent and long-term departures were, very slightly, lower than a year ago. 

On a net basis, there was permanent and long-term immigration into Australia of around +447,000 over the year to November. 

The annual figure for net immigration appears to have stabilised of late.

Short-term resident returns also increased by 11 per cent over the past year.

The month of December tends to see a couple of million or more Aussie departures trekking overseas, and so this is generally a much quieter time for the housing market, but then the arrivals figures tend to come roaring back in January.

Australia's 2024 Population Statement projected population growth of +444,000 in 2025, as I looked at in a bit more detail here.

At the macro level, the housing shortage will thus likely worsen in 2025, given the comparatively slow rate of building.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Unemployment rate lifts, a little, to 4pc

Part-time jobs burst

Australia's participation rate nudged to a record high in December, and this helped to lift the unemployment rate a bit, albeit only from a seasonally adjusted 3.93 per cent 3.98 per cent. 

As such, the reported unemployment rate rounded up from 3.9 per cent in November to 4 per cent in December.

Three states still had a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of under 4 per cent at the end of 2024, those being super-tight Western Australia (3.3 per cent), New South Wales (3.8 per cent), and Queensland (3.9 per cent).

The highest state unemployment rate was seen in Victoria (4.4 per cent). 

For the month of December, part-time employment increased by a massive +80,000, but full-time employment was reported as -23,700 lower. 

The net increase for the month overall was much chunkier than expected at +56,300, the recent trend in jobs gains also being mainly driven by strong hiring in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland. 

There were some modest downwards revisions to previously reported figures, and the 3-month average employment gain slowed a little further to +32,000 (down from a recent high of +51,000 in September 2024).

Leading indicators suggest a more modest pace of hiring ahead. 

There was once again no deterioration at all in either the underemployment rate (6 per cent) or the underutilisation rate (10 per cent) in December. 

The Aussie dollar initially increased from 62.25 US cents to around 62.4 cents on these solid figures, but then later during the day's trade drooped lower again, to under 62 cents. 

Bond yields weren't dramatically moved through the day either, suggesting that markets are already rather more focussed on the quarterly inflation figures, which are due for release in January 29. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Korean BBQ

UK inflation falls...sighs of relief

It's a quiet time of year for news, to be honest, but let's take a quick look around the traps at what's been going on nonetheless.

In the UK, there was some welcome respite for an embattled Treasury and government, with the headline inflation rate unexpectedly falling to 2½ per cent in December. 

Bond markets have been getting absolutely smashed over recent months in Britain, putting the Chancellor at risk of breaking fiscal rules, potentially yet requiring an emergency Budget. 

Notably, services inflation - which has been running way too high - fell back from 5 per cent to 4.4 per cent over the year to December, and the government will no doubt be very grateful for some brighter news. 

The US headline inflation figure increased as expected to 2.9 per cent, but core inflation was slightly softer than expected, rounding down to 0.2 per cent for the month, and 3.2 per cent over the year.

After a torrid four months, there was a serious sigh of relief on UK markets, with the 10-year gilt yield easing 18 basis points lower. 

Aussie news

Back in Australia, engineering construction work done lifted by another 3.3 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms for the September quarter, powered largely by more public works and infrastructure activity.

Construction activity has been exceptionally strong in Queensland and Western Australia, arguably crowding out activity in the homebuilding space.

Work done for the public sector has steepled more than 13 per cent higher over the year, with the government maintaining high levels of investment and spending. 

Engineering construction work commenced also jumped by 13.6 per cent in the quarter, in original terms.

And, finally for today in Australia, skilled job vacancies eased by a further -2.5 per cent (or -5,400 job advertisements) to 214,600 in December 2024.

Skilled vacancies fell by -17.4 per cent over the course of calendar year 2024, with all states and territories seeing declines, and Victoria (-23.5 per cent) experiencing the sharpest drop.

Source: IVI, Australian Government

At the highs, in June 2022, there were more than 305,000 job advertisements on the equivalent skills vacancies index. 

Source: IVI, Australian Government

The most important news of the week for Australia will be released tomorrow morning, in the form of the latest Labour Force figures.

To date, the unemployment rate in Australia has remained remarkably low, but a number of other countries have found that when the tide turns, it turns quite quickly into a rip!

South Korea was the latest country to find this out the had way, with the latest unemployment figures released earlier today.

Source: Bloomberg

The reported unemployment rate jumped from 2.7 per cent to 3.7 per cent, which was the highest level in the 3½ years since June 2021, sparked in part by the disruption related to the political rows and temporary flirtation with martial law. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Job ads hold up in December

ANZ job ads steady

ANZ reported that job advertisements held the line in December, rising marginally by +0.3 per cent.

While job ads are well down from their highs of 2021 and 2022, they appear to have stabilised somewhat over recent months.

Major bank economists are split down the middle as to whether interest rates will be cut in February.

The answer to that conundrum may be found in the Labour Force figures for December, which are due to be released on Thursday morning.

In November the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to just 3.93 per cent. 

Other indicators of the labour market, on the other hand - such as the wage price index - suggest that tightness in the labour market has eased. 

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The US Producer Price Index surprised to the downside in December, with headline PPI coming in at 0.2 per cent for the month (versus 0.4 per cent expected), and core PPI coming in dead flat for the month.

Over the year, PPI advanced 3.3 per cent - versus 3.5 per cent expected. 

This was welcome news for bond yields, but there could yet be a sting in the tail for consumer price inflation, given that there was a marked jump in airfares in December. 

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Australia's population growth is easing, but the total estimated resident population has passed 27½ million.

The estimated population increase is now one additional person every 58 seconds - equating to around 500,000 persons annualised. 

The 2024 Population Statement predicts that population growth in 2024 will slow to around +444,000.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here. 

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here. 

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3¾ million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,800 followers. 

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here. 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.