Thursday, 14 December 2023

Property versus shares debate (Australian Shareholders Association)

The big debate

I joined Andrew Page in this big ASA debate on the merits of property versus shares.

Tune in here (or click to watch the video below):


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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

  1. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

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Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here

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  1. Work with me privately

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Fed pivots, and it's go, go, GO...

Santa Claus rally

Markets have been pricing significant monetary easing next year from the US Federal Reserve.

But if you were expecting any pushback in today's FOMC Statement...well, you'd be disappointed! 

The latest round of Fed projections point to a series of interest rate cuts in 2024 (perhaps two to four) with more rate cuts to come in 2025, with the implied neutral rate - essentially where things are eventually heading - back down at 2.5 per cent. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell now believes that interest rate cuts have come into view.

It's been a while between drinks, but you can finally roll out the Ross from Friends "pivot" memes again...


As recently as 6 weeks ago the 10-year bond yield in the US was trading at 5 per cent, and yet now we're back down to 4 with a bullet.

It looks like the Fed has finished its hiking cycle, then, with the debate now shifting to how soon the first the interest rate cut will come...perhaps as soon as March.

Market pricing is looking for up to six interest rate cuts in the US next year, while Australia's benchmark 3-year bond yield plunged to under 3.8 per cent today.

The UK's 2-year gilt yield has also plummeted from 5½ per cent in June to 4.36 per cent today, with markets pricing rate cuts next year for the Poms from the Bank of England too.

In New Zealand inflation also appears to be falling faster than expected. 

Stock markets will of course love this...position for a belter of a Santa Claus rally into Xmas!

I also reckon you can forget any of those bearish property forecasts for 2024...global interest rates are heading back down, and it's so close market participants can just about taste it. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

  1. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

  1. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

  1. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Wednesday, 13 December 2023

Why property AND shares are the key to retirement

Rask webinar

Great to join the legendary Owen Rask at this webinar - tune in here (or click on the image below):


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Check out some my picks in the Hot 100 suburbs for 2024 list here (or in The Australian here). 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

  1. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

  1. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

  1. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

US inflation calls to 3.1pc

CPI slows to 3.1 per cent

US inflation came in at just 0.1 per cent in November, and as such declined to 3.1 per cent over the year.

It's almost uncanny how market forecasters can predict these results down to a decimal point these days!

Shelter makes up 35 per cent of the price index for the US, and due to a quirk in the way rents are computed - basically with a huge lag - officially rents inflation continues to power along, up +0.5 per cent for the month.

Shelter inflation was still flying at +6.5 per cent higher over the year, but that's surely set to decline over the year ahead. 

Back in the real world US asking rents are flat or falling across most markets. 


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Core inflation was still tracking at 4 per cent over the year, but the 6-month annualised pace here too was down to 2.9 per cent, and indeed the past 3 months are already tracking lower than the Fed's expectations. 

Everyone seems to be so dialed in to the minutiae of how these indices are calculated these days, but it's probably smart to take a step back and look at the bigger picture too.

Crude oil and natural gas prices are way down from their highs, China is now experiencing outright deflation, and markets expect the Fed to be cutting interest rates in the first half of 2024. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

  1. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

  1. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

  1. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Tuesday, 12 December 2023

Population growth to dial back, at 27 million

Tighter visa requirements

Having hit 25,650 as at Q1 2020, Australia's estimated resident population more or less stalled for 21 months, with many temporary residents and students leaving the country, and with immigration paused.

When the borders reopened, population growth naturally soared back in 2022.

Increasing at a pace of 1,800 persons per day, or an annual pace of 650,000, the resident population will round at 2023 at 27 million.  

Essentially the population of Australia is back on the same trend it would have been at if the pandemic had never happened. 


The government has copped a lot of flak for this, but it was probably inevitable.

Temporary visa holder number increased by more than 1 million as the students, tourists, and working holiday makers returned.

Permanent migration visa processing has also been operating at full tilt, in order to tackle the labour shortage.

Even now the unemployment rate is still as low as 3.7 per cent. 

Record low rental vacancy rates and poor polling mean that the government is compelled to make some announcements related to slowing population growth.

In reality, population growth will slow naturally in 2023, as the net growth in the number of international students normalised. 

We won't see population growth like 2023 again any time soon, but more likely it will soften towards around 450,000 next year. 

The government did what it had to do, and continues to do so. 

The temporary skilled migration income threshold will be lifted to $70,000, but this will barely have any impact on student numbers over the next two years. 

Visas for those with specialist skills and earning $135,000 plus will be fast-tracked and processed within 7 days. 

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Inflation expectations fell from 5.6 per cent to 5.0 per cent on the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan reading.

Let's see if that sticks this time!


Pre-pandemic, the inflation expectations reading was tracking at around 4 per cent to 4½ per cent (and inflation was undershooting the 2 to 3 per cent target at that time). 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

  1. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

  1. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

  1. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Sunday, 10 December 2023

2-Sense: Upzone it and they will come?

2-Sense

This week on the 2-Sense segment, Batesy and I discussed the coming rezoning changes in New South Wales, and the other main news stories this week. 

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


You can watch the video version on YouTube here:

Saturday, 9 December 2023

Charlie Munger on health, wealth, and happiness

Charlie Munger (1924- 2023)

Delivering insights to the last, a few observations from Charles Munger last month.

Check it out here
(or click on the image below):


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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

  1. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

  1. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

  1. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Dave Gow, from Strong Money Australia

FIRE movement

Thought I'd share this coaching client call as there were some great insights from Dave Gow of Strong Money Australia, a pioneer of the Financial Independence Retire Early movement in Australia. 

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

  1. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

  1. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

  1. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.