Unemployment rising in Oz
Employment increased +55,000 in October, taking the number of employed persons in Australia a massive +419,000 higher over the past year to a record 14,173,500.
The October result was largely a result of part-time employment, however, some of which may have been driven by temporary hiring related to 'The Voice' referendum (which could thus be unwound in November).
Still, the 3-month average employment growth has held up at a sprightly +44,000.
The number of unemployed persons increased over the month from a seasonally adjusted 519,900 to 547,800, taking the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate up from 3.55 per cent to 3.72 per cent.
It most likely be won't be too long before we're back with an unemployment rate above 4 per cent now, with things trending steadily in that direction for a little while.
The underutilisation rate ticked up slightly to 10 per cent, while monthly hours worked also continue to trend, gently, lower.
Economist Justin Fabo has pointed out that other leading indicators related to job advertisements and job applications are clearly softening, as are wages expectations (with wages growth set to peak imminently at 4 per cent).
In fact there's very little prospect that the rate of growth in employment will keep pace with the extremely high pace of growth in Australia's working age headcount.
Overall, there's been some solid data this week in Australia, but markets haven't been much fazed, with bond yields down over the week in sympathy with
softening US inflation data.
Australia's 3-year bond yield has tumbled around 35 basis points lower from the highs at the beginning of the month (when it was as high as 4.46 per cent).
Some cheaper fuel prices one day soon would also be nice...crude oil was down another 5 per cent today, suggesting that higher interest rates are rather crushing demand.
Crude oil prices are at the lowest level since July, and down by more than 20 per cent since September.
Oh, and Walmart's CEP casually dropped in the 'D' word on this morning's earnings call...deflation!
Source: Bloomberg, via the Twitter
In other Aussie news, even more builders and developers are falling over, taking construction insolvencies for the financial year to date to above 1,000 already.
The decade high was hit last financial year at more than 2,200, as reported by the AFR.
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