Pete Wargent Daily Blog

Tuesday, 19 November 2024

ausbiz: Population and property pressures

ausbiz TV

I joined Andrew at ausbiz TV to talk all the latest property news.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

New home sales pick up, except in Sydney

New home sales off the lows

The proportion of employers preparing to increase staffing levels declined from 22 per cent to 19 per cent, according to the latest recruitment report from Jobs & Skills Australia.

It's still not always easy to find the required staff, though, especially in regional Australia, where recruitment difficulty rates remain quite elevated.

In other news relating to the housing shortage, new home sales rose by a promising 9.4 per cent in October, which should result in a rebound in new housing starts in 2025.

The increase was driven by a 26.5 per cent increase in Victoria, where stamp duty has been scrapped for new builds since October 1, with no price caps.

Most other cities and states are seeing a recovery from the nadir, with the notable exception of Sydney.

Reported the HIA:

“New home sales nationally are showing an upward trend, with sales in the last twelve months 8.0 per cent higher compared to the previous year.

“The rise in new home sales will see an increase in house commencements from early 2025.

“If this trend continues, New South Wales will be the only laggard market for home building activity. This is driven by the high cost of residential land, particularly in Greater Sydney."

There's been such a large rise in construction costs since 2020 that Sydney is unlikely to see a recovery in multi-unit building until prices have increased significantly.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here.

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here.

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing.

3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here.

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers.

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here.

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

The key trends shaping 2025 (podcast)

Big Picture Podcast

I joined Michael Yardney to discuss the key trends shaping 2025.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

Monday, 18 November 2024

Temp visas (ex-visitors) rise 8pc to new high

Temp visas surge

The total number of temporary visas in Australia rose to 2.8 million in September (it's not the strongest time of year for temporary entrants).

Excluding visitors, temporary visa number rose to 2,464,000, an increase of around 8 per cent or 164,000 from a year earlier.

Visa numbers are set to rise to a new high of 3 million in due course.

International student visa numbers nudged up to a new high of 720,000.

It looks as though both the Coalition and the Greens will vote against international student caps, so there will be no changes here until 2026 at the earliest (if there are to be any changes at all).

The rental crisis has eased a little as tenants bunch up, but it hasn't gone away.

There will likely be a demand-driven crush for good-quality rentals in 2025.

Melbourne will be an interesting test case, given that the total number of rentals actually fell by around 20,000 over the year, with more landlords selling up and first homebuyers coming into the market.

Nationally the rental vacancy rate tightened a little in October to just 1.2 per cent.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here.

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here.

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing.

3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here.

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers.

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here.

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Sunday, 17 November 2024

2-Sense: This is what Trump’s clean sweep means for markets

2-Sense podcast

This week, Chris and I considered the US election result and what it means for markets.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the YouTube version here:

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here.

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here.

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing.

3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here.

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers.

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here.

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Saturday, 16 November 2024

NAB property forecasts for 2025

NAB forecasts

From NAB, 2025 property price forecasts by capital city:

NAB has pushed out its call for the first interest rate cut of the cycle to May 2025, with some other major banks still leaning towards February.

Property price growth is expected to be a little cooler next year across most capital cities, with Melbourne turning positive.

Thursday, 14 November 2024

Aussie labour market still holding up well

Employment holds up

Employment growth was lower than expected in October, at around +15,900.

Still that comes off the back of a string of strong results, and total employment rose to a fresh record high of 14,537,500, seasonally adjusted.

Despite the slowdown, employment was still +2.7 per cent higher than a year earlier, for an increase of 387,100.

The number of unemployed persons rose by 8,300, to a total of 625,800.

This nudged the unemployment rate slightly up from 4.08 per cent to 4.13 per cent, but still this remains lower than was reported for the month of July (4.23 per cent, seasonally adjusted).

The growth in monthly hours worked was softer, increasing only +0.1 per cent over the month.

Still, the Reserve Bank will be keenly monitoring youth unemployment and the underemployment rate, and there's been no deterioration to speak of here.

In fact, the underemployment and underutilisation measures have been surprisingly upbeat throughout the whole of 2024 calendar year to date.

At the state level, this was a massive month for Queensland, with employment growing by +1.3 per cent, but there wasn't so much action elsewhere.

Queensland has a very low unemployment rate of only 3.9 per cent, while Victoria's unemployment rate is a fair bit higher now at 4½ per cent.

The Aussie dollar moved slightly lower from 64.9 to 64.8 US cents on the slightly softer figures, but it's not much of a change to the outlook overall.

James Foster ran through the detailed figures here.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here.

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here.

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing.

3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here.

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers.

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here.

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

US inflation 0.2pc, rate cut to follow (probably)

Inflation as expected

Headline US inflation once again came in at 0.2 per cent in October, continuing a string of similar results over recent months,

The headline rate of inflation was slightly higher at 2.6 per cent due the base effect (though by February and March some much strong comparative figures will be dropping out of annual result.

Inflation continues to be driven by shelter (0.4 per cent), which accounted for over half of the monthly all items increase.

Core inflation was 0.28 per cent for the month, though, and remains a bit high for comfort at 3.3 per cent.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Overall, this result was pretty much in line with expectations, and markets liked that there were no undue upside surprises.

The US 2-year treasury yield settled 6 basis points lower, as markets expect there to be enough headroom for another interest rate cut to be delivered in December.

Today in Australia sees the release of the latest labour force figures, which markets expecting another solid increase in employment, and the unemployment rate holding at a low level of around 4.1 per cent.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here.

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here.

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing.

3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with well over 50,000 audio downloads per month, and growing fast.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with some 3.7 million hits here.

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 14,600 followers.

By the way, I'm an 8-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here.

My new book, co-authored with Cate Bakos is available to buy here or on Amazon here - follow our book release on Facebook here and at our Buy Right podcast series here.

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.