2-Sense: Traffic, traffic, everywhere...time to stop and think?

2-Sese

This week on the Australian Property Podcast, Batesy and I discuss the Rozelle Interchange traffic disaster, the Fed pivot, and tweaks to population policy.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also watch the video version here (or click below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Property to power on in 2024

Property forecasts

Proptrack's property forecasts for 2024, predict prices gains of 2-5 per cent for Sydney, 3 to 6 per cent for Brisbane, and 5-8 per cent for Perth.

There are declines expected in Darwin, Hobart, and possibly in Canberra. 

Source: Proptrack

Forecasts have generally been too bearish, in my opinion.

Firstly because lending is so tight that nothing much is going to get built at today's prices, turning the rental market into a modern version of the Hunger Games.

And secondly because global markets are sensing a peak in the interest rate cycle, with interest rates expected to fall over the next couple of years. 

There's no good reason now why lending is being restricted with a 3 percentage points assessment buffer - if anything a massive shortage of housing adds to financial stability risks later. 

This is a Goldilocks scenario for asset prices, including stock markets around the world, which will very likely pump to fresh highs in 2024.

CBA expects the unemployment rate to revert to 4 per cent by mid-2024 - following indicators such as Roy Morgan's survey and SEEK job advertisements - but Australia is expected to avoid a damaging recession. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Population growth at record high +624,100 in FY2023

Record population growth

Annual population growth in Australia ran at a record +624,100 in the 2023 financial year, or +2.4 per cent. 

Source: ABS

Internally and within Australia, recent times have largely been about a return to capital city dominance.

The 2020 and 2021 net interstate migration surge out of Victoria has ended now, and may even prove to be reversing a little. 

Queensland (+32,250) and Western Australia (+11,650) continued to attract the most net interstate migrants over the course of the financial year.

In terms of the fastest rate of growth, Western Australia led the way with a thumping +3.1 per cent full-on population boom across the financial year, in a distant echo of the resources construction boom years. 

Year-on-year population growth was also extremely high in Victoria (+181,800), New South Wales (+172,600), and Queensland (+138,500). 

The estimated growth in the resident population has slowed slightly - if slowed is the right word - to around 1,728 per day, suggesting that the estimated resident population will be around 26,950,000 by the end of the year. 

That's a little bit lower than previous estimates, but essentially back on the pre-pandemic trend. 

Of course, population growth of +624,100 is still a huge number, and it makes the Treasury estimates for net overseas migration declining to +375,000 in FY2024 seem a trifle...um, optimistic. 

In the meanwhile, red hot population growth continues. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Unemployment rate rises to 18-month high of 3.9pc

Unemployment rate jumps

Employment was far stronger than expected in November, rising by +61,500 to an all-time high of 14¼ million, and almost all accounted for by full-time jobs in the month.

There had been some expectation that employment growth might slow after hiring for 'The Voice' referendum was unwound, but in fact there's been no discernible slowdown in hiring at all as yet. 

This while yields are tanking all over the place - and markets have rushed to price in six interest rate cuts for the US next year - Australia will be in no rush to follow suit. 

That having been said, with the population surging and the participation rate rising to a record high 67.2 per cent, Australia's unemployment rate increased from 3.7 per cent to 3.9 per cent, which is the highest level in 18 month. 

The under-utilisation rate also climbed from 10.1 per cent to 10.4 per cent, which was also a 21-month high. 

Confirming that the labour market is not as tight as it has been, hours worked barely increased in the month, and are lower than their highs of April 2023. 

Source: ABS

Overall, a pretty tidy result, although bond yields have dropped in sympathy with global sentiment.

Australia's 3-year bond yield is at the lowest level in 6 months, with markets pricing for a potential 3 interest rate cuts over the next 18 months or so.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Property versus shares debate (Australian Shareholders Association)

The big debate

I joined Andrew Page in this big ASA debate on the merits of property versus shares.

Tune in here (or click to watch the video below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Fed pivots, and it's go, go, GO...

Santa Claus rally

Markets have been pricing significant monetary easing next year from the US Federal Reserve.

But if you were expecting any pushback in today's FOMC Statement...well, you'd be disappointed! 

The latest round of Fed projections point to a series of interest rate cuts in 2024 (perhaps two to four) with more rate cuts to come in 2025, with the implied neutral rate - essentially where things are eventually heading - back down at 2.5 per cent. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell now believes that interest rate cuts have come into view.

It's been a while between drinks, but you can finally roll out the Ross from Friends "pivot" memes again...

As recently as 6 weeks ago the 10-year bond yield in the US was trading at 5 per cent, and yet now we're back down to 4 with a bullet.

It looks like the Fed has finished its hiking cycle, then, with the debate now shifting to how soon the first the interest rate cut will come...perhaps as soon as March.

Market pricing is looking for up to six interest rate cuts in the US next year, while Australia's benchmark 3-year bond yield plunged to under 3.8 per cent today.

The UK's 2-year gilt yield has also plummeted from 5½ per cent in June to 4.36 per cent today, with markets pricing rate cuts next year for the Poms from the Bank of England too.

In New Zealand inflation also appears to be falling faster than expected. 

Stock markets will of course love this...position for a belter of a Santa Claus rally into Xmas!

I also reckon you can forget any of those bearish property forecasts for 2024...global interest rates are heading back down, and it's so close market participants can just about taste it. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Why property AND shares are the key to retirement

Rask webinar

Great to join the legendary Owen Rask at this webinar - tune in here (or click on the image below):

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Check out some my picks in the Hot 100 suburbs for 2024 list here (or in The Australian here). 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

US inflation calls to 3.1pc

CPI slows to 3.1 per cent

US inflation came in at just 0.1 per cent in November, and as such declined to 3.1 per cent over the year.

It's almost uncanny how market forecasters can predict these results down to a decimal point these days!

Shelter makes up 35 per cent of the price index for the US, and due to a quirk in the way rents are computed - basically with a huge lag - officially rents inflation continues to power along, up +0.5 per cent for the month.

Shelter inflation was still flying at +6.5 per cent higher over the year, but that's surely set to decline over the year ahead. 

Back in the real world US asking rents are flat or falling across most markets. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Core inflation was still tracking at 4 per cent over the year, but the 6-month annualised pace here too was down to 2.9 per cent, and indeed the past 3 months are already tracking lower than the Fed's expectations. 

Everyone seems to be so dialed in to the minutiae of how these indices are calculated these days, but it's probably smart to take a step back and look at the bigger picture too.

Crude oil and natural gas prices are way down from their highs, China is now experiencing outright deflation, and markets expect the Fed to be cutting interest rates in the first half of 2024. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.