Population growth to dial back, at 27 million

Tighter visa requirements

Having hit 25,650 as at Q1 2020, Australia's estimated resident population more or less stalled for 21 months, with many temporary residents and students leaving the country, and with immigration paused.

When the borders reopened, population growth naturally soared back in 2022.

Increasing at a pace of 1,800 persons per day, or an annual pace of 650,000, the resident population will round at 2023 at 27 million.  

Essentially the population of Australia is back on the same trend it would have been at if the pandemic had never happened. 

The government has copped a lot of flak for this, but it was probably inevitable.

Temporary visa holder number increased by more than 1 million as the students, tourists, and working holiday makers returned.

Permanent migration visa processing has also been operating at full tilt, in order to tackle the labour shortage.

Even now the unemployment rate is still as low as 3.7 per cent. 

Record low rental vacancy rates and poor polling mean that the government is compelled to make some announcements related to slowing population growth.

In reality, population growth will slow naturally in 2023, as the net growth in the number of international students normalised. 

We won't see population growth like 2023 again any time soon, but more likely it will soften towards around 450,000 next year. 

The government did what it had to do, and continues to do so. 

The temporary skilled migration income threshold will be lifted to $70,000, but this will barely have any impact on student numbers over the next two years. 

Visas for those with specialist skills and earning $135,000 plus will be fast-tracked and processed within 7 days. 

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Inflation expectations fell from 5.6 per cent to 5.0 per cent on the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan reading.

Let's see if that sticks this time!

Pre-pandemic, the inflation expectations reading was tracking at around 4 per cent to 4½ per cent (and inflation was undershooting the 2 to 3 per cent target at that time). 

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2-Sense: Upzone it and they will come?

2-Sense

This week on the 2-Sense segment, Batesy and I discussed the coming rezoning changes in New South Wales, and the other main news stories this week. 

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can watch the video version on YouTube here:

Charlie Munger on health, wealth, and happiness

Charlie Munger (1924- 2023)

Delivering insights to the last, a few observations from Charles Munger last month.

Check it out here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

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Dave Gow, from Strong Money Australia

FIRE movement

Thought I'd share this coaching client call as there were some great insights from Dave Gow of Strong Money Australia, a pioneer of the Financial Independence Retire Early movement in Australia. 

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Oil prices plunge -27 per cent (oh, and the Aussie economy)...

Per capita recession for Australia

Perhaps it's no surprise that the massive hikes in interest rates are now belting households, with the saving ratio down to just 1.1 per cent in the September quarter, and set to turn negative by the time this year is out. 

GDP growth came in at just +0.2 per cent for the September quarte, or -0.3 per cent in per capita terms.

If it hadn't been for the FIFA Women's World Cup - and the Matildas exhilarating run pumping up travel exports by +4.4 per cent - the headline GDP figures would've been close to negative as well.  

In fact GDP per person has been falling throughout 2023, so the per capita recession is now well and truly entrenched, with growth is set to slump below trend in 2024 under the current settings. 

The terms of trade boom is now also unwinding, with lower coal, oil, and natural gas prices all set to play a role in pulling income lower in 2024. 

Critically mortgage interest payable by households has exploded by an outlandish +173 per cent since the March 2022 lows.

I doubt this will prove to be sustainable for the current levels of household consumption. 

Australian commentary is still intensely focused on the need to defeat inflation, but across most of the rest of the developed world the narrative has moved on to how much interest rates will need to fall by next year to stave off a recession. 

As global demand plunged oil prices have crashed to $69/barrel overnight, falling below $70 for the first time since July, and down by -27 per cent from the highs. 

Natural gas prices were also down by -5 per cent.

I wonder if oil is shaping up to be an outstanding 'Buy' again sometime soon. 

I reckon we'll soon discover we're fighting yesterday's war on the inflation front, and market pricing has certainly shifted that way with OIS pricing now sloping markedly lower over the next 18 months, and looking set to drop below 4 per cent by the end of 2024. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

RBA on hold, slightly dovishly

Weaker data rolls in

There was another rather large data dump today - for want of a better phrase! - most of which we don't need to go into in too much depth here!

In brief, Australia's current account balance slipped quietly back into a very slight deficit in the third quarter, on stronger services imports and lower commodity prices. 

Although inventories will add to economic growth in the September quarter, net exports will deduct around -0.6 percentage points. 

James Foster ran through the detailed figures here. 

Household consumption will likely prove to be soft also, at least it appears that way based upon the retail trade volume figures already reported. 

In nominal terms, household spending was only +2.7 per cent higher over the year to October based upon today's latest figures, which is lower after accounting for inflation (and quite a bit lower in per capita terms). 

Source: ABS

Overall, GDP growth in Australia's national accounts looks set to be positive, but underwhelming...a per capita recession, if you will. 

In other news, the value of Australia's dwelling stock increased to $10.3 trillion in the September quarter, with the mean dwelling price ascending by $19,200 over the period, driven by solid gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia. 

Source: ABS

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold as expected, in a slightly dovish statement this afternoon, as the brutal interest rate hiking cycle approaches its peak.

Market pricing expects the next move in rates to be down for Australia, but probably not for some time to come. 

Other news saw some very weak results reported for Judo Bank's activity gauge, with services activity recording the weakest reading in the history of the survey, exclusive of the pandemic lockdown periods.

Jobs and Skills Australia also reported lower job advertisements and expectations for slower hiring activity in the recruitment outlook.

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Oil prices are threatening to take out a 5-month low on weaker global demand, which should translate to lower petrol prices over the coming weeks. 

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Sign up for this rematch Property versus Shares webinar with the Australian Shareholders Association here (or click on the image below):

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Will housing market reignite post silly season? (ausbiz TV)

ausbiz TV

I joined Danielle Ecuyer at ausbiz to discuss here (or click on the image below);

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Domain reported that rental vacancy rates held at an all-time low of 0.8 per cent in November, for the third month in a row. 

There may be some seasonal increases in the capital cities at various points over the next few months, but the general trend has been lower over the past two years. 

Domain's rental report can be found here.

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.

Lending for housing picks up solidly

Housing firms

Fairly well a Goldilocks set of numbers for property market participants today.

New housing finance comfortably surpassed expectations, rising +5.4 per cent in October. 

Thanks to Alex Joiner from IFM, who I swear must be using AI to pull together this information so quickly:

Lending for the purchase and construction of new housing was well down on a year ago, but may just be turning a corner (good luck finding a builder right now, mind you). 

James Foster plotted the speed of the rebound here - although the refinancing boom has ended, activity is generally trending higher quite quickly.

The Housing Industry Association warned again on this point, and the ensuing housing shortage:

Source: HIA

More good news was also reported on the inflation from, with the trimmed mean inflation gauge from the Melbourne Institute dropping to 3.8 per cent over the year, portending further declines in the 'official' ABS figures ahead. 

Source: IFM Investors

Looking ahead, consumers should also get some further declines in unleaded petrol prices over the coming weeks. 

Finally, job ads fell by a steeper -4.6 per cent in November, following a revised -3.4 per cent fall in October. 

The index has fallen by a sharp -8.4 per cent over the past 3 months, will further declines looking very likely. 

ANZ also apparently thinks the Reserve Bank of Australia has done enough:

Source: ANZ

Higher interest rates are working to bring down inflation and are cooling the hot jobs market noticeably now. 

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 4 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

1. Boom or Bust in 2023 – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan for 2023 - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

2. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is one of Australia's biggest business podcasts.

And our enormously popular Low Rates High Returns Show is also available on Spotify.

3. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with over 3.4 million hits here. 

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,300 followers. 

4. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here.