Employment soars 366,000 in November

Jobs bounceback

Total employment jumped +366,000 in November, all the way back to around where it was in May and June. 

A huge number of part-time jobs were recovered as the most populated states reopened for business. 

This was largely a story of employment recovering in November in New South Wales (+180,000) and Victoria (+141,000) as the restrictions were eased. 

The unemployment rate dived back down to 4.61 per cent - a sharp improvement, though a little higher than the August lows. 

Overall, very encouraging numbers, though the Twitterati are already taking about reintroducing COVID restrictions, so we're likely a long way yet from back to normal. 

Also, participation may still have some way to rise from here. 

Still, a positive result!

More detail from the data king James Foster here.

Aussies beating a path to SEQ

SEQ surge

In FY2021, interstate migration to south-east Queensland surged to the highest levels since the post-Olympics exodus from Sydney 16 years ago. 

On a net basis interstate migration to Queensland soared to +30,939 in the 2021 financial year, the highest since 2005.

This time around the surge came at the expense of locked down Victoria (-18,300 over the financial year). 

Victoria also lost more than 56,000 to net overseas migration, as the 260 long days of lockdown led to an exodus. 

The natural growth in the Australian population - births minus deaths - was still +134,800 over the year, but this was partly offset by the huge number of departures from Victoria. 

Victoria has followed New South Wales in releasing restrictions since the end of the financial year, and so its popularity is certain to rebound from here. 

Overall, Queensland had the highest population growth in FY2021 of +45,900, and Victoria had the lowest at -44,700.

The Big Picture podcast

Big Picture trends

We talked through all the latest trends on The Big Picture podcast here (or click on the image below):

Top areas to invest (paywall)

Top picks

I discussed our top location picks in the AFR today (you may be paywalled)...

In any case, you can download our full Property Investor Report for 2022 here. 

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As inflation pressures refuse to ease the US Federal Reserve is now in taper mode, with three rate hikes priced in for 2022.

The Bank of England is also expected to hike sooner rather than later, with inflation now above 5 per cent to be at the highest level in a decade. 

It will be interesting to see what the RBA has to say of interest on the subject over the weeks ahead, if anything. 

Expect to see a bonanza jobs print today, with the economy likely to add 200,000 to 300,000 back on to total employment.

The unemployment rate might not improve much - or even at all - however, as the labour force swells and participation surges back. 

More on this later...

Australia is full: rental vacancies tighten again

Vacancies tighten

Vacancy rates continued to declined in November, down to just 1.5 per cent, well below the 2.1 per cent seen a year earlier. 

Brisbane tightened to 1.3 per cent, and for the first time we now have five capital cities with vacancy rates under 1 per cent.

Hobart had fewer than 100 rental vacancies, for a vacancy rate of just 0.3 per cent. 

The longer term trend shows that Sydney and Melbourne still have relatively higher vacancy rates, driven by the CBDs, which recorded vacancy rates of 6.9 per cent and 7.2 per cent respectively.

Many holiday locations are expected to have the 'zero vacancies' signs out over the Christmas period, according to SQM Research. 

With more Aussies than ever before likely to opt for 'stay-cations' this year, there could well be a chronic shortage of properties available for rent over the next few months.

The incremental shift in favour of tenancy laws in favour of tenants over landlords, and changes to financing requirements for property investors, have also added to the tightening market. 

Asking rents for houses surged 14.1 per cent nationally over the year, and for units rents were up 9.1 per cent, according to SQM, so investors will likey be more active in 2022. 

2021 saw a booming demand for larger properties, however, SQM's Louis Christopher anticipates a shift towards units next year, as affordability bites. 

Peak narrative

Pyramid selling

I'm increasingly convinced - or at least concerned - that many youngsters will lose most of their net worth, or worse, in the coming months or years, as the stimulus is wound back and the tightening cycle begins. 

Anyone who is old enough to have been around in the tech bubble years will immediately get the point. 

Too much leverage, too much wild speculation for instant gains, too many narratives about why such and such is different. 

This week's latest theme appears to be that pyramid schemes and Ponzi schemes could actually be a good thing, as long as you get in early... 

etc etc. 

Investment principles

Clearly there's a lot of new technology breaking new ground right now, and that will in any case continue for decades to come.

But what a lot of younger investors may not yet appreciate is that many of the same investment principles still apply today, as they do in all asset classes.

For example, employ at least some level of diversification (i.e. don't have all your eggs in one basket), have a base of sound investments, and then potentially then add some higher risk investments and allocations, and so on.

A decade from now one would to have to assume there will probably be a few huge, game-changing winners, but then also thousands of coins, NFTs, and crypto ventures that will inevitably be worth zero. 

Compound your wealth

Of course, you can get exposure to the space, if that's what you want to do - it's just probably not smart to stake all of your net worth on one outcome, particularly in some of the borderline insane meme tokens and stocks. 

Most of the people reading my blog would know this stuff already, as it's a somewhat self-selecting readership, and you're most likely interested in finance and investing. 

We were all young once, and unfortunately the only way to learn a lot of these lessons is the hard way, and perhaps many youngsters will need to do so. 

The good news is that when you're young you usually have less to lose in financial terms, and you do have the time in your side to bounce back. 

Anyway, here are a couple of stocking-filler ideas for your friends and family who may not be so financially well-versed, to get them financially educated:

Mortgage brokers taking record market share

Brokers dominating

Next stop 70 per cent of the market, and with good reason!

We discussed the latest mortgage broking trends here (or click on the image below):

Property Pod: Stephen Koukoulas

2022 outlook

We were delighted to have The Kouk back on the pod this week to roll out his 2022 predictions.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):

You can also tune in at Apple podcasts, or Spotify, and elsewhere. 

You can even tune in on YouTube if you want.