Overseas arrivals exceed pre-pandemic levels

Arrivals are BACK

December was a relatively subdued month for demographic flows, as is usually the case, according to ABS stats.

Net permanent immigration for the month was modest, taking the annual net permanent and long-term immigration figure for the 2024 calendar year down to +445,000 (slightly lower than the +448,000 seen in 2023). 

January was a different story, with overseas arrivals roaring back to a provisional figure of 2.38 million.

Tourism figures haven't yet fully recovered to where they might've been, but it's only a matter of time now, with short-term arrivals up by 8 per cent over the past year.

Source: ABS

Arrivals for January at higher levels than they were in pre-pandemic years, which probably accounts for the plunge in rental vacancies in January, discussed here yesterday. 

Source: ABS

February is normally the biggest month of the year for the net long-term migrant intake, so there will be further pressure on the rental market in the lead-up to the election. 

This poses a problem for the government, because the Coalition has an easy target in the form of the HAFFF, which - although it is planning to deliver some homes and has opened funding rounds - has yet to deliver any new housing.

The government will be praying for an interest rate cut next week to be able to take a 'good news' story into the election campaign. 

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